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Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market

Author

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  • Rasmus Fatum

    (University of Alberta)

  • Jesper Pedersen

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper investigates the real-time effects of foreign exchange intervention using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Denmark is currently pursuing an active intervention policy under the provisions of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) and intervenes on a discretionary basis when considered necessary. Prior participation in ERM II is a requirement for adoption of the Euro. Therefore, our study is of particular relevance for the new European Union member states that are either currently participating in ERM II or expected to do so at a later date as well as for Denmark. Our analysis employs the two-step weighted least squares estimation procedure of Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Vega (2003) and an array of robustness tests. We find that intervention exerts a statistically and economically significant influence on exchange rate returns when the direction of intervention is consistent with fundamentals and intervention is carried out during a period of high exchange rate volatility. We also show that the exchange rate does not adjust instantaneously to the unannounced and discretionary interventions under study. We conclude that intervention can be an important short-term policy instrument for exchange rate management.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen, 2007. "Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 07-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:07-01
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reitz Stefan & Taylor Mark P., 2013. "The Danish krone-euro exchange rate and Danmark Nationalbank intervention operations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 239-249, May.
    2. Kathryn Dominguez & Rasmus Fatum & Pavel Vacek, 2010. "Does foreign exchange reserve decumulation lead to currency appreciation?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 48, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2010. "Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?," Discussion Papers 10-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2221, CESifo.
    5. Francesca Caselli, 2017. "Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    6. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    7. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Rasmus Fatum & Pavel Vacek, 2013. "Do Sales of Foreign Exchange Reserves Lead to Currency Appreciation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 867-890, August.
    8. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.
    9. Lubomír Lízal & Jirí Schwarz, 2013. "Foreign exchange interventions as an (un)conventional monetary policy tool," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 127-143, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Melvin, Michael & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Exchange rate management in emerging markets: Intervention via an electronic limit order book," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 54-63, September.
    11. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    12. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective, and through Which Channel Does It Work?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, November.
    13. Charles Engel, 2010. "Exchange rate policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 229-250, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Burkhard, Lukas & Fischer, Andreas M., 2009. "Communicating policy options at the zero bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 742-754, September.
    15. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:867-890 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
    17. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2013. "Exchange rates in target zones: Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. FATUM, Rasmus & YAMAMOTO, Yohei & CHEN, Binwei, 2023. "The Trend Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-132, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2013. "The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 103-117.
    20. Lock, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Flujos de órdenes en el mercado cambiario y el valor intrínseco del Nuevo Sol," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 29, pages 33-54.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange intervention; intraday data; ERM II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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