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Central Bank Forex Interventions Assessed Using Realized Moments

  • Beine,M.
  • Palm,F.C.
  • Laurent,S.

    (METEOR)

This paper studies and assesses the impact of G3 Central Bank interventions on the DEM/USD exchange rate properties using daily realized moments of exchange rate returns (obtained from intraday data) for the period 1989-2001. Event studies in terms of the realized moments for the intervention day, the days preceding and following the intervention day illustrate the shape of this impact. Rolling regressions results for an ARFIMA model for realized moments are used to measure the intervention impact and characterize its significance.The analysis confirms previous findings of an increase of volatility after a coordinated Central Bank intervention. It highlights new findings on the timing and the persistence of coordinated interventions on exchange rate volatility, on important volatility spillovers, on the impact on exchange rate covariances and correlations and on skewness coefficients.

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File URL: http://digitalarchive.maastrichtuniversity.nl/fedora/objects/guid:f03d2af0-db84-4a91-aed6-ba222aae89e4/datastreams/ASSET1/content
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Paper provided by Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR) in its series Research Memorandum with number 057.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2003057
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  1. Michel Beine & Agnes Bénassy-Quéré & Christelle Lecourt, 2002. "Central Bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10445, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
  3. Michel Beine & Christelle Lecourt, 2004. "Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange market," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10427, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  5. Takatoshi Ito, 2003. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? The Japanese experiences in the 1990s," Chapters, in: Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 5 Edward Elgar.
  6. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December.
  7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
  8. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 641-660, December.
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  10. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 1998. "Intraday effects of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 191-210, February.
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  13. Christopher J. Neely, 2000. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Working Papers 2000-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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  16. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 307-17, July.
  17. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2003. "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 891-911, October.
  18. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sébastien & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 112-127, February.
  19. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280.
  20. Almekinders, G.J. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1994. "Daily Bundesbank and federal reserve interventions : Are they a reaction to changes in the level and volatility of the DM/$-rate?," Other publications TiSEM e583abfb-39f0-4c9d-8848-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  21. Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," RCER Working Papers 322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  22. Beine, Michel, 2004. "Conditional covariances and direct central bank interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1385-1411, June.
  23. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
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  25. William Melick & Gabriele Galati, 1999. "Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96," BIS Working Papers 77, Bank for International Settlements.
  26. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1999. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  28. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  29. Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-60, July.
  30. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
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  33. Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002. " G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 447-85, July.
  34. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  36. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
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