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Are the intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads asymmetric and state dependent?

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmus Fatum
  • Jesper Pedersen
  • Peter Norman Sørensen

Abstract

This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate testable hypotheses regarding how unannounced intervention purchases and intervention sales influence the market asymmetrically. To test these hypotheses we estimate weighted least squares (WLS) time-series models of the intraday bid-ask spread. Our main result is that intervention purchases and sales both exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when the state of the market is not abnormally volatile. Our results are consistent with the notion that illiquidity arises when traders fear speculative pressure against the smaller currency and confirms the asymmetry hypothesis of our theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2010. "Are the intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads asymmetric and state dependent?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 59, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:59
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper, 2009. "Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 11-20, June.
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    6. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-676, October.
    7. Rasmus Fatum, 2010. "Foreign Exchange Intervention When Interest Rates Are Zero: Does the Portfolio Balance Channel Matter After All?," EPRU Working Paper Series 2010-07, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets ; Banks and banking; Central ; Monetary policy ; Foreign exchange rates ; International finance;

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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