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Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book

  • Michael Melvin
  • Lukas Menkhoff
  • Maik Schmeling

This paper describes and analyzes “automated intervention” of a target zone. Unusually detailed information about the order book allows studying intervention effects in a microstructure approach. We find in our sample that intervention increases exchange rate volatility (and spread) for the next minutes but that intervention days show a lower degree of volatility (and spread) than non-intervention days. We also show for intraday data that the price impact of interbank order flow is smaller on intervention days than on non-intervention days. Finally, we reveal that informed banks take different positions than uninformed banks as they tend to trade against the central bank – which reflects a rational stance. Despite this position taking, the targeted exchange rate range holds and volatility, spread and price impact go down. Overall, the credible expression of an intervention band seems to achieve the desired effects of a target zone.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-02/cesifo1_wp2221.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2221.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2221
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  1. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
  2. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
  3. Rasmus Fatum & Michael R. King, 2005. "Rules versus Discretion in Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada High-Frequency Data," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-06, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  4. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December.
  5. Fischer, Andreas M., 2006. "On the inadequacy of newswire reports for empirical research on foreign exchange interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1226-1240, December.
  6. Corrado, L. & Miller, M. & Zhang, L., 2007. "Bulls, Bears and Excess Volatility: can currency intervention help?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0708, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  8. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
  9. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-331, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  10. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
  11. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  12. Geert J. Almekinders, 1995. "Foreign Exchange Intervention," Books, Edward Elgar, number 71, March.
  13. Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2006-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper, 2009. "Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 11-20, June.
  15. Anusha Chari, 2007. "Heterogeneous Market-Making in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Individual Bank Responses to Central Bank Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1131-1162, 08.
  16. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
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