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Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets

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  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • Schmeling, Maik

Abstract

This study shows that order flow in a foreign exchange market only has permanent price impact if it comes from certain regions. These regions are - as predicted by the local information hypothesis - centers of political and financial decision making. It is revealing that orders from other regions only show a very short-lived but no permanent price impact. Local information is so important that it carries over from the usually considered market orders to aggressively-priced limit orders too. The finding is robust to various market conditions, common news shocks and consideration of feedback trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-331, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-331
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Ramazan Gençay & Nikola Gradojevic & Richard Olsen & Faruk Selçuk, 2015. "Informed traders’ arrival in foreign exchange markets: Does geography matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1431-1462, December.
    3. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Osler, Carol L. & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Limit-order submission strategies under asymmetric information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2665-2677, November.
    5. Ran Xiao, 2019. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Market Currencies," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2019.
    6. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 101-128, February.
    8. Sandro C. Andrade & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002," Working Papers Series 211, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Melvin, Michael & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Exchange rate management in emerging markets: Intervention via an electronic limit order book," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 54-63, September.
    10. Gau, Yin-Feng & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2014. "Order choices under information asymmetry in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 106-118.
    11. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2221, CESifo.
    12. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Trader see, trader do: How do (small) FX traders react to large counterparties' trades?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1283-1302, November.
    13. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Henao-Londono, Juan C. & Guhr, Thomas, 2022. "Foreign exchange markets: Price response and spread impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    15. Gau, Yin-Feng & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2017. "Macroeconomic announcements and price discovery in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 232-254.
    16. Juan Camilo Henao Londono & Thomas Guhr, 2021. "Foreign exchange markets: price response and spread impact," Papers 2104.09309, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    17. Ding, Liang & Hiltrop, Jonas, 2010. "The electronic trading systems and bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 323-345, October.
    18. Piccotti, Louis R., 2016. "Pricing errors and the geography of trade in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-69.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local information hypothesis; price impact; limit orders; informed traders;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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