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End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics

Author

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  • Taylor, Mark P.
  • Schmidt, Markus
  • Reitz, Stefan

Abstract

In this paper we provide evidence for Evans and Lyons' (2005b) model of an information aggregation process in FX markets using a German bank's end-user order flow from 2002 to 2003. Though customer order flow is unambiguously the vehicle incorporating non-public information into exchange rates over time, our empirical analysis does not support the widespread optimism in the market microstructure literature that customer order flow is the high-powered source of information easily exploitable for short-run speculation. Moreover, commercial customers' order flow produces negative coefficients in contemporaneous return regressions, stressing their role as liquidity providers.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5559
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ramb, Fred, 2007. "Corporate marginal tax rate, tax loss carryforwards and investment functions: empirical analysis using a large German panel data set," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,21, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Reitz, Stefan & Schmidt, Markus & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "Financial Intermediation and the Role of Price Discrimination in a Two-Tier Market," MPRA Paper 15602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pausch, Thilo, 2007. "Endogenous credit derivatives and bank behavior," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Ben Craig & Valeriya Dinger, 2009. "Bank Mergers and the Dynamics of Deposit Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 111-133, December.
    6. Kosuke Aoki & Takeshi Kimura, 2007. "Uncertainty about Perceived Inflation Target and Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    7. Tödter, Karl-Heinz & Manzke, Bernhard, 2007. "The welfare effects of inflation: a cost-benefit perspective," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Moro, Rouslan A. & Schäfer, Dorothea, 2007. "Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    10. Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2007. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: a dynamic panel analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2012. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," Working Papers Series 273, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Faria, Pedro & Schmidt, Tobias, 2007. "International Cooperation on Innovation: Empirical Evidence for German and Portuguese Firms," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-060, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Loretan, Michael Stanislaus & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2007. "A note on the coefficient of determination in regression models with infinite-variance variables," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange; market microstructure; end-user order flow;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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