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Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements

In: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17)

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  • Takatoshi Ito
  • Yuko Hashimoto

Abstract

This paper examines the price impact and the predictability of the exchange rate movement using the transaction data recorded in the electronic broking system of the spot foreign exchange market. The number of actual deals at the ask (or bid side) for a specified time interval may be regarded as "order flows" to buy (or sell) in Richard Lyons' work. First, the contemporaneous impact of order flows on the quote and deal prices are analyzed. Second, the price predictability is examined. Our forecasting equations of the exchange rate for the next X minutes (X=1, 5, 15, 30) show that coefficients are significantly different from zero in both 5-min and 1-min forecast horizons, but the significance disappears in the 30-minute interval. The t-statistics become larger as the prediction window becomes shorter. Price impacts of deals at one side of the market are significant but short-lived. Market participants, if they can observe and analyze all the transactions information in real time, may be able to extract information to predict the price movements in the following next few minutes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2008. "Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements," NBER Chapters,in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pages 177-217 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:6983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, June.
    2. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813148543_0011 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Raj S. Krishnasami Iyer & David Liu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2004. "The high-frequency effects of U.S. macroeconomic data releases on prices and trading activity in the global interdealer foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 823, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009. "An information approach to international currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
    5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    7. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, January.
    8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
    10. Takatoshi Ito, 2005. "Interventions and Japanese economic recovery," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 219-239, November.
    11. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    12. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
    13. Takatoshi Ito, 2003. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? The Japanese experiences in the 1990s," Chapters,in: Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2004. "Microstructure of the Yen/Dollar Foreign Exchange Market: Patterns of Intra-day Activity Revealed in the Electronic Broking System," NBER Working Papers 10856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Richard K. Lyons, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 183-208 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    17. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Understanding Order Flow," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 13, pages 507-546 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1989. "Intra Day And Inter Market Volatility In Foreign Exchange Rates," Papers 8811, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    19. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2010. "Effects of Japanese macroeconomic statistic announcements on the dollar/yen exchange rate: High-resolution picture," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 334-354, September.
    2. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2010. "International macroeconomic announcements and intraday euro exchange rate volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 552-568, December.
    3. Zhang, Guangfeng & Zhang, Qiong & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2013. "Exchange Rate Determination and Forecasting: Can the Microstructure Approach Rescue Us from the Exchange Rate Disparity?," MPRA Paper 57673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ventura, André & Garcia, Marcio Gomes Pinto, 2012. "Mercados futuro e à vista de câmbio no Brasil: O rabo balança o cachorro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 66(1), March.
    5. Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito & Takaaki Ohnishi & Misako Takayasu & Hideki Takayasu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2008. "Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability," NBER Working Papers 14160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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