IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/14160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability

Author

Listed:
  • Yuko Hashimoto
  • Takatoshi Ito
  • Takaaki Ohnishi
  • Misako Takayasu
  • Hideki Takayasu
  • Tsutomu Watanabe

Abstract

Using tick-by-tick data of the dollar-yen and euro-dollar exchange rates recorded in the actual transaction platform, a "run" -- continuous increases or decreases in deal prices for the past several ticks -- does have some predictable information on the direction of the next price movement. Deal price movements, that are consistent with order flows, tend to continue a run once it started i.e., conditional probability of deal prices tend to move in the same direction as the last several times in a row is higher than 0.5. However, quote prices do not show such tendency of a run. Hence, a random walk hypothesis is refuted in a simple test of a run using the tick by tick data. In addition, a longer continuous increase of the price tends to be followed by larger reversal. The findings suggest that those market participants who have access to real-time, tick-by-tick transaction data may have an advantage in predicting the exchange rate movement. Findings here also lend support to the momentum trading strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito & Takaaki Ohnishi & Misako Takayasu & Hideki Takayasu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2008. "Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability," NBER Working Papers 14160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14160
    Note: IFM ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14160.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne, 1995. "One Day in June, 1994: A Study of the Working of Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System," NBER Technical Working Papers 0179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, June.
    3. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March.
    4. Ito, Takatoshi & Hashimoto, Yuko, 2006. "Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 637-664, December.
    5. Mizuno, Takayuki & Kurihara, Shoko & Takayasu, Misako & Takayasu, Hideki, 2003. "Analysis of high-resolution foreign exchange data of USD-JPY for 13 years," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 296-302.
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    7. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
    8. Lillo Fabrizio & Farmer J. Doyne, 2004. "The Long Memory of the Efficient Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-35, September.
    9. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    10. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    11. David A. Hsieh & Allan W. Kleidon, 1996. "Bid-Ask Spreads in Foreign Exchange Markets: Implications for Models of Asymmetric Information," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 41-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2008. "Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements," NBER Chapters,in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pages 177-217 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Richard K. Lyons, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 183-208 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    15. Vicentiu Covrig & Michael Melvin, 2005. "Tokyo insiders and the informational efficiency of the yen|dollar exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 185-193.
    16. Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne, 1996. "One Day in June 1993: A Study of the Working of the Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System," NBER Chapters,in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 107-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Giampaolo Galli & Alberto Giovannini, 1996. "The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran96-1.
    18. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
    19. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. In praise of belief in efficient markets
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-02-13 17:14:47

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2010. "International macroeconomic announcements and intraday euro exchange rate volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 552-568, December.
    2. Zapart, Christopher A., 2015. "Econophysics: A challenge to econometricians," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 318-327.
    3. Rechenthin, Michael & Street, W. Nick, 2013. "Using conditional probability to identify trends in intra-day high-frequency equity pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6169-6188.
    4. Schmidt, Anatoly B., 2009. "Detrending the realized volatility in the global FX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(9), pages 1887-1892.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.