Intra-day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the Electronic Broking System (Subsequently published in "Journal of the Japanese and International Economies", Volume 20, Issue 4, December 2006, pp. 637-664. )
This paper examines intra-day patterns of the exchange rate behavior, using the "firm" bid-ask quotes and transactions of USD-JPY (Alec: The EBS notations define the base currency as the first currency in the name of the currency pair. Note that trading in EBS is done in millions of the base currency) and Euro-USD pairs recorded in the electronic broking system of the spot foreign exchange markets. The U-shape of intra-day activities is confirmed for Tokyo and London participants, but not for New York participants. Activities (deals and price changes) do not increase toward the end of business hours in the New York market, even on Fridays (ahead of weekend hours of non-trading). It is generally observed a negative correlation between the number of deals and the width of bid-ask spread during business hours, but in the first business minutes of Tokyo, bid-ask spread and activities have high correlation. It is also found that the concentration of transaction during overlapping business hours between Tokyo and London markets (London and New York markets) may arise from heterogeneous expectations among participants from different regions, that is waking up of participants of the next region in time line of the day.
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