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Order Flows, News, and Exchange Rate Volatility



  • A. MENDE

This paper examines the roles of order flow (reflecting private information) and news (reflecting public information) in explaining exchange rate volatility. Analyzing four months of a bank’s high frequency US dollar-euro trading, three different kinds of order flow are used in addition to seasonal patterns in explaining volatility. We find that only larger sized order flows from financial customers and banks – indicating informed trading – contribute to explaining volatility, whereas flows from commercial customers do not. The result is robust when we control for news and other measures of market activity. This strengthens the view that exchange rate volatility reflects information processing.

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Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 07/474.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:07/474
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  7. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 175-196, March.
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  11. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Working Paper Series 0365, European Central Bank.
  12. BAUWENS, Luc & RIME, Dagfinn & SUCARRAT, Genaro, . "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1788, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  13. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
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  15. Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan-Leung & Lee, Raymond S. K. & Melvin, Michael, 2001. "'Once-in-a-generation' yen volatility in 1998: fundamentals, intervention, and order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 327-347, June.
  16. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
  17. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
  18. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
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  20. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Melvin, Michael & Yin, Xixi, 2000. "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 644-61, July.
  23. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
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  25. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  26. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-339, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  27. Geir H. Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2002. "Volume and Volatility in the FX-Market: Does it matter who you are?," CESifo Working Paper Series 786, CESifo Group Munich.
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