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Asymmetries and state dependence: the impact of macro surprises on intraday exchange rates

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  • Fatum, Rasmus
  • Hutchison, Michael M.
  • Wu, Thomas

Abstract

The impact of news surprises on exchange rates depends in principle upon a number of factors including the state of the economy, institutional setting and nature of the expected policy response. These characteristics may lead to state-contingent asymmetric responses to news. In this paper we investigate the possible asymmetric response of intraday exchange rates (5-minute intraday JPY/USD) to macroeconomic news announcements during a very unusual period--Japan during 1999-2006 when the money market interest rate was effectively zero. We may think of this period as a "natural experiment" consisting of an institutional setting when interest rates may rise but not decline, thereby constraining both endogenous policy reactions to news and private market expectations. Asymmetric responses to news, to the extent that they are important in exchange rate markets as they are in equity markets, would seem particularly likely to be evident during this period. We consider several ways asymmetric responses may be manifested and linked to macroeconomic news during the zero-interest rate period. We assess whether the intraday exchange rate responds differently depending on whether the news is emanating from Japan or the U.S.; we consider the state of the business cycle; and we distinguish between "good" and "bad" news.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M. & Wu, Thomas, 2010. "Asymmetries and state dependence: the impact of macro surprises on intraday exchange rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 49, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:49
    Note: Published as: Fatum, Rasmus, Michael Hutchison and Thomas Wu (2012), "Asymmetries and State Dependence: The Impact of Macro Surprises on Intraday Exchange Rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 26 (4): 542-560.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2017. "The Exchange Rate Effects of Macro News after the Global Financial Crisis," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 305, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Gabriella Cagliesi & Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina & Massimo Tivegna, 2016. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: How Traders’ Behaviour Has Been Affected by the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 139-177, July.
    3. Ben Omrane, Walid & Savaşer, Tanseli, 2016. "The sign switch effect of macroeconomic news in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 96-114.
    4. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
    5. Sheridan Titman & Matthias Hanauer, 2014. "Is Japan Different? Evidence on Momentum and Market Dynamics," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 141-160, March.
    6. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gustavo S. Cortes & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2017. "Stock Volatility and the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 23554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Adrian Jäggi & Martin Schlegel & Attilio Zanetti, 2016. "Macroeconomic surprises, market environment and safe-haven currencies," Working Papers 2016-15, Swiss National Bank.
    9. repec:eee:pacfin:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:37-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:sbe:breart:v:36:y:2016:i:2:a:46421 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Christopher J. Neely & S. Rubun Dey, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 417-464.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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