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The Exchange Rate Effects of Macro News after the Global Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Rasmus Fatum

    (University of Alberta)

  • Yohei Yamamoto

    (Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

We explore whether the exchange rate effects of macro news are time- and state-dependent by analyzing and comparing the relative influence of US and Japanese macro news on the JPY/USD rate before, during, and after the Global Financial Crisis. A comprehensive set totaling 40 time-stamped US and Japanese news variables and preceding survey expectations along with 5-minute indicative JPY/USD quotes spanning the 1 January 1999 to 31 August 2016 period facilitate our analysis. Our results suggest that while US macro news are now more important than before the Crisis, the influence of Japanese macro news has waned to the point of near-irrelevance. These findings are of particular importance to exchange rate modeling of the New Era.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Rasmus Fatum & Yohei Yamamoto, 2017. "The Exchange Rate Effects of Macro News after the Global Financial Crisis," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_007, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2017_007
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    File URL: https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/GRU%232017-007%20Cheung%20Fatum%20Yamamoto.pdf
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    2. Teona Shugliashvili, 2023. "The words have power: the impact of news on exchange rates," FFA Working Papers 5.006, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 31 Jul 2023.
    3. Wang, Wenhao & Lin, Zhitao & Hu, Bing, 2023. "Macro news effects on exchange rates: Difference between carry trade target and safe-haven currencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Ben Omrane, Walid & Panah, Pari Gholi, 2025. "Foreign exchange markets, climate risks and contextual news: An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Ben Omrane, Walid & Das, Deepan Kumar, 2024. "Macroeconomic news, senior officials' speeches, and emerging currency markets: An intraday analysis of price jump reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Mengyu Wang & Tiejun Ma, 2024. "MANA-Net: Mitigating Aggregated Sentiment Homogenization with News Weighting for Enhanced Market Prediction," Papers 2409.05698, arXiv.org.
    7. Adrian Jäggi & Martin Schlegel & Attilio Zanetti, 2019. "Macroeconomic surprises, market environment, and safe-haven currencies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Yamada, Masahiro & Ito, Takatoshi, 2022. "Price discovery and liquidity recovery: Forex market reactions to macro announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Konstantinos Gkillas & Paraskevi Katsiampa & Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Mark E. Wohar, 2023. "Greek government‐debt crisis events and European financial markets: News surprises on Greek bond yields and inter‐relations of European financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4037-4054, October.
    10. Munazza Jabeen & Abdul Rashid, 2022. "Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Exploring the Role of Order Flow," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 222-245, May.
    11. Firouzi, Shahrokh & Wang, Xiangning, 2021. "The interrelationship between order flow, exchange rate, and the role of American economic news," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Munazza Jabeen & Abdul Rashid & Hajra Ihsan, 2022. "The news effects on exchange rate returns and volatility: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 745-769, January.
    13. Ederington, Louis & Guan, Wei & Yang, Lisa (Zongfei), 2019. "The impact of the U.S. employment report on exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 257-267.
    14. Thi‐Hong‐Van Hoang & Wojciech Przychodzen & Justyna Przychodzen & Elysé A. Segbotangni, 2020. "Does it pay to be green? A disaggregated analysis of U.S. firms with green patents," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 1331-1361, March.
    15. Rasmus Fatum & Naoko Hara & Yohei Yamamoto, 2024. "Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macro‐Economic News on Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1261-1285, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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