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Order flows, news, and exchange rate volatility

  • Frömmel, Michael
  • Mende, Alexander
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

This paper examines the roles of order flow (reflecting private information) and news (reflecting public information) in explaining exchange rate volatility. Analyzing four months of a bank's high frequency dollar/euro trading, three different kinds of order flow are used in addition to seasonal patterns in explaining volatility. We find that only larger sized order flows from financial customers and banks - indicating informed trading - contribute to explaining volatility, whereas flows from commercial customers do not. The result is robust when we control for news and other measures of market activity. This strengthens the view that exchange rate volatility reflects information processing.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 994-1012

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:6:p:994-1012
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  4. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and speculation in intra-day foreign exchange trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 223-245, August.
  5. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November.
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan-Leung & Lee, Raymond S. K. & Melvin, Michael, 2001. "'Once-in-a-generation' yen volatility in 1998: fundamentals, intervention, and order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 327-347, June.
  8. BAUWENS, Luc & BEN OMRANE, Walid & GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," CORE Discussion Papers 2003029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  9. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank.
  10. Osler, Carol & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Price Discovery in Currency Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-351, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  11. Richard K. Lyons, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Volume: Sound and Fury Signifying Nothing?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 183-208 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Luc Bauwens & Dagfinn Rime & Genaro Sucarrat, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 889-911, January.
  14. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80.
  15. Melvin, Michael & Yin, Xixi, 2000. "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 644-61, July.
  16. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  17. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-276, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  18. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-341, March.
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  20. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 175-196, March.
  21. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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  25. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  26. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521485845 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
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