IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading

  • Mende, Alexander
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

This study examines profits and speculation in the USD/EUR trading of a bank in Germany over a four-month period. Dealing activity at the bank generates profits but speculation does not seem to contribute to this. We find that speculative positions fail to become profitable within a 30-minutes' horizon. Also, the suggestion that exchange rate volatility would foster speculative profits cannot be confirmed. To explain daily revenues, neither the bank's speculative trading volume nor its inventory position, but only customer trading emerges as a significant determinant. Furthermore, a spread analysis reveals that there is hardly any room for revenues from speculation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-339.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) with number dp-339.

as
in new window

Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-339
Contact details of provider: Postal: Koenigsworther Platz 1, D-30167 Hannover
Phone: (0511) 762-5350
Fax: (0511) 762-5665
Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-hannover.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  3. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November.
  4. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
  5. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
  6. Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  7. Shang-Jin Wei & Jungshik Kim, 1999. "The Big Players in the Foreign Exchange Market: Do They Trade on Information or Noise?," CID Working Papers 5, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  8. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-276, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  9. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1991. "A Bayesian model of intraday specialist pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-134, November.
  10. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. " Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
  11. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  12. Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1820, October.
  13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, 06.
  16. Q. Farooq Akram, & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Working Paper 2005/12, Norges Bank.
  17. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank.
  19. Osler, Carol & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Price Discovery in Currency Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-351, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  20. Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  21. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2005. "Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 279-296, 01.
  23. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  24. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August.
  25. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
  26. Alexander Mende, 2006. "09/11 on the USD/EUR foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 213-222.
  27. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  28. John Ammer & Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "Are banks market timers or market makers? Explaining foreign exchange trading profits," International Finance Discussion Papers 484, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Schultz, Paul, 2003. "Who makes markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 49-72, January.
  30. Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Heidrich, Christian)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.