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Intraday Patterns in FX Returns and Order Flow

  • Francis Breedon


    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Angelo Ranaldo

    (University St. Gallen)

Using a comprehensive high-frequency foreign exchange dataset, we present evidence of time-of-day effects in foreign exchange returns through a significant tendency for currencies to depreciate during local trading hours. We confirm this pattern across a range of currencies and time zones. We also find that this pattern is reflected in order flow and suggest that both patterns relate to the tendency of market participants to be net purchasers of foreign exchange in their own trading hours. Data from a single market maker appears to corroborate that interpretation.

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Paper provided by Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 694.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp694
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  1. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and speculation in intra-day foreign exchange trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 223-245, August.
  2. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "An Empirical Study of Liquidity and Information Effects of Order Flow on Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  4. Hau, Harald & Massa, Massimo & Peress, Joël, 2005. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 4862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Stavros Panageas & Janice C. Eberly & Andrew B. Abel, 2011. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market with Information Costs and Transactions Costs," 2011 Meeting Papers 102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Angelo Ranaldo, 2007. "Segmentation and Time-of-Day Patterns in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2007-03, Swiss National Bank.
  7. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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