IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Price discovery in currency markets

  • Osler, Carol L.
  • Mende, Alexander
  • Menkhoff, Lukas

This paper examines the price discovery process in currency markets, basing its analysis on the pivotal distinction between the customer (end-user) market and the interdealer market. It first provides evidence that this price discovery process cannot be based on adverse selection between dealers and their customers, as postulated in standard models, because the spreads dealers quote to their customers are not positively related to a trade’s likely information content. The paper then highlights three factors familiar in the literature – fixed operating costs, market power, and strategic dealing – that may explain the cross-sectional variation in customers’ spreads. The paper finishes by proposing a price discovery process relevant to liquid two-tier markets and providing preliminary evidence that this process applies to currencies.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560611001288
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1696-1718

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:8:p:1696-1718
DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.08.004
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Martin Evans, 2000. "FX trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers gueconwpa~00-00-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  4. Reitz, Stefan & Schmidt, Markus A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in a two-tier market," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  7. Madhavan, A. & Smidt, S., 1991. "A Baysian Model of Intraday Specialist Pricing," Weiss Center Working Papers 2-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  8. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Local information in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1383-1406, December.
  9. Dan Bernhardt & Vladimir Dvoracek & Eric Hughson & Ingrid M. Werner, 2005. "Why Do Larger Orders Receive Discounts on the London Stock Exchange?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1343-1368.
  10. Bernhardt, Dan & Hughson, Eric, 2002. "Intraday trade in dealership markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1697-1732, October.
  11. Kate Phylaktis & Long Chen, 2010. "Asymmetric information, price discovery and macroeconomic announcements in FX market: do top trading banks know more?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 228-246.
  12. Chris Leach, J. & Madhavan, Ananth N., 1992. "Intertemporal price discovery by market makers: Active versus passive learning," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 207-235, June.
  13. Erik Theissen, 2002. "Trader Anonymity, Price Formation and Liquidity," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse20_2002, University of Bonn, Germany.
  14. Oliver Hansch & Narayan Y. Naik & S. Viswanathan, 1999. "Preferencing, Internalization, Best Execution, and Dealer Profits," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1799-1828, October.
  15. Mende, Alexander, 2005. "09/11 on the USD/EUR Foreign Exchange Market," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-312, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  16. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Charles Goodhart & Ryan Love & Richard Payne & Dagfinn Rime, 2002. "Analysis of spreads in the dollar/euro and deutschemark/dollar foreign exchange markets," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 535-552, October.
  18. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
  19. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank.
  20. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. " Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-69, December.
  21. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2005. "Over-the-Counter Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1815-1847, November.
  22. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2008. "A Tale of Two Platforms: Dealer Intermediation in the European Sovereign Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Intra-day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the Electronic Broking System," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-407, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  24. Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006. "Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
  25. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  26. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 175-196, March.
  27. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1993. " An Analysis of Changes in Specialist Inventories and Quotations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1595-1628, December.
  28. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  29. Thierry Foucault, 2011. "Order Flow Composition and Trading Costs in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," Working Papers hal-00601598, HAL.
  30. Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "What determines transaction costs in foreign exchange markets?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 14-25.
  31. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-35.
  33. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
  34. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
  35. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  36. Hasabrouck, Joel & Sofianos, George, 1993. " The Trades of Market Makers: An Empirical Analysis of NYSE Specialists," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1565-93, December.
  37. Peter C. Reiss & Ingrid M. Werner, 1998. "Does Risk Sharing Motivate Interdealer Trading?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1657-1703, October.
  38. Bjonnes,H. & Rime,D., 2000. "Customer trading and information in foreign exchange markets," Memorandum 30/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  39. Thomas Ho & Hans Stoll, . "Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 27-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  40. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and speculation in intra-day foreign exchange trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 223-245, August.
  41. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
  42. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  43. Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2009. "Asymmetric information in the interbank foreign exchange market," Working Paper 2008/25, Norges Bank.
  44. Oliver Hansch & A Neuberger, 1996. "Strategic Trading by Market Makers on the London Stock Exchange," Archive Working Papers 013, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  45. Lukas Menkhoff & Carol L. Osler & Maik Schmeling, 2010. "Limit-Order Submission Strategies under Asymmetric Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 3054, CESifo Group Munich.
  46. Richard C. Green & Burton Hollifield & Norman Schurhoff, . "Financial Intermediation and the Costs of Trading in an Opaque Market," GSIA Working Papers 2004-11, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  47. Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Order flows, news, and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 994-1012, October.
  48. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," NBER Working Papers 13278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Naik, Narayan Y & Neuberger, Anthony & Viswanathan, S, 1999. "Trade Disclosure Regulations in Markets with Negotiated Trades," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 873-900.
  50. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, March.
  51. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1996. " Cream-Skimming or Profit-Sharing? The Curious Role of Purchased Order Flow," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 811-33, July.
  52. Oliver Hansch & Narayan Y. Naik & S. Viswanathan, 1998. "Do Inventories Matter in Dealership Markets? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1623-1656, October.
  53. Leach, J Chris & Madhavan, Ananth N, 1993. "Price Experimentation and Security Market Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 375-404.
  54. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
  55. Mark A. Peterson & Erik R. Sirri, 2003. "Order Preferencing and Market Quality on U.S. Equity Exchanges," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 385-415.
  56. Flood, Mark D, et al, 1999. "Quote Disclosure and Price Discovery in Multiple-Dealer Financial Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 37-59.
  57. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-75.
  58. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
  59. Ronald L. Goettler & Christine A. Parlour & Uday Rajan, 2005. "Equilibrium in a Dynamic Limit Order Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2149-2192, October.
  60. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
  61. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  62. Christie, William G & Schultz, Paul H, 1994. " Why Do NASDAQ Market Makers Avoid Odd-Eighth Quotes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1813-40, December.
  63. Mintao Fan & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "Customer trades and extreme events in foreign exchange," Chapters, in: Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:8:p:1696-1718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.