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Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination

Micro-based exchange-rate research examines the determination and behavior of spot exchange rates in an environment that replicates the key features of trading in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Traditional macro exchange-rate models play little attention to how trading in the FX market actually takes place. The implicit assumption is that the details of trading are unimportant for the behavior of exchange rates over months, quarters or longer. Micro-based models, by contrast, examine how information relevant to the pricing of FX becomes reflected in the spot exchange rate via the trading process. According to this view, trading is not an ancillary market activity that can be ignored when considering exchange-rate behavior. Rather, trading is an integral part of the process through which spot rates are determined and evolve. The past decade of micro-based research has uncovered a robust and strong empirical relation between exchange rates and measures of FX trading activity. One measure in particular, order flow (i.e., the net of buyer- and seller-initiated FX trades) appears as the proximate driver of exchange-rate changes over horizons ranging from a few minutes to a few months. This finding supports the view that trading is an integral part of exchange-rate determination. It also stands in stark contrast to the well-known deficiencies of macro models in accounting for exchange-rate variations over horizons shorter than a couple of years. In this paper we provide an overview of micro-based research on exchange-rate determination. We survey both models focusing on partial equilibrium, the traditional domain of microstructure research, and recent research that focuses on the link between currency trading and macroeconomic conditions in the general equilibrium setting of modern macroeconomic models. We believe micro-based research is making some progress towards understanding the links between macroeconomic conditions and the behavior of exchange rates over macro-

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Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~10-10-04.

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Date of creation: 10 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~10-10-04
Contact details of provider: Postal: Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
Phone: 202-687-6074
Fax: 202-687-6102
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Order Information: Postal: Roger Lagunoff Professor of Economics Georgetown University Department of Economics Washington, DC 20057-1036
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  1. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
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  12. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. David W. Berger & Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Edward Howorka & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," International Finance Discussion Papers 830, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  26. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  27. Antonio Scalia, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some micro-analytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 579, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  28. Martin Evans and Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Informational Integration and FX Trading," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  29. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2010. "An empirical study of portfolio-balance and information effects of order flow on exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 504-524, April.
  31. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  32. Michael Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Commercially Available Order Flow Data and Exchange Rate Movements: "Caveat Emptor"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 583-625, 06.
  33. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
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