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Exchange Rates and Order Flow in the Long Run

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  • M. Martin Boyer
  • Simon van Norden

Abstract

Several recent papers have underlined the importance of the microstructure effects in understanding exchange rate behavior by documenting stable long-run relationships between cumulated order flows and spot exchange rates. This stands in contrast to the widely-studied failure of exchange rates to conform to the long-run behavior implied by conventional macroeconomic models and is consistent with the prediction of micro-structure models. We reexamine the evidence for stable long-run relationships. We find that such evidence exists only for a small number of the major currencies we examine and that is it statistically fragile. We conclude that this implication of microstructure models does not fit the data as well as previous studies suggest. Plusieurs études récentes ont souligné l'importance de la microstructure des marchés pour la compréhension des comportements des taux de change en documentant les relations stables à long terme entre les flux des commandes cumulées et les taux de change courants. Les résultats contrastent avec ceux de nombreuses études sur l'échec des taux de change de se conformer au comportement à long terme que supposent les modèles macroéconomiques « conventionnels » et sont conformes à la prédiction des modèles microstructurels. Nous réexaminons l'évidence de relations stables à long terme et constatons que celle-ci n'existe que dans un petit nombre des taux de change étudiés et qu'elle est fragile du point de vue statistique. Nous concluons que l'implication des modèles microstructurels ne correspond pas aux données aussi bien que des études précédentes laissent supposer.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Martin Boyer & Simon van Norden, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Order Flow in the Long Run," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-07, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2006s-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhichao & Chau, Frankie & Zhang, Wenting, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and dynamics in China: A market microstructure analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 303-316.
    2. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    3. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2014. "Quantifying Informational Linkages in a Global Model of Currency Spot Markets," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Gradojevic, Nikola & Lento, Camillo, 2015. "Multiscale analysis of foreign exchange order flows and technical trading profitability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 156-165.
    5. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2011. "Asymmetric Price Impacts of Order Flow on Exchange Rate Dynamics," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gradojevic, Nikola, 2012. "Frequency domain analysis of foreign exchange order flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 73-76.
    9. Nikola Gradojević & Vladimir Djaković & Goran Andjelić, 2010. "Random Walk Theory and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 303-320, September.
    10. Yoshihiro Kitamura, 2011. "The Impact of Order Flow on the Foreign Exchange Market: A Copula Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(1), pages 1-31, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; foreign exchange rates; order flow; microstructure; cointégration; flux de commandes; microstructure; taux de change;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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