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Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market

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  • Joshua V. Rosenberg
  • Leah G. Traub

Abstract

In this paper, we compare price discovery in the foreign exchange futures and spot markets during a period in which the spot market was less transparent but had higher volume than the futures market. We develop a foreign exchange futures order flow measure that is a proxy for the order flow observed by Chicago Mercantile Exchange pit traders. We find that both foreign currency futures and spot order flow contain unique information relevant to exchange rate determination. When we measure contributions to price discovery using the methods of Hasbrouck and of Gonzalo and Granger, we obtain results consistent with our order flow findings. Taken together, our evidence suggests that the amount of information contained in currency futures prices is much greater than one would expect based on relative market size.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:262
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    2. Hau, Harald, 2014. "The exchange rate effect of multi-currency risk arbitrage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 304-331.
    3. Kalok Chan & Yiuman Tse & Michael Williams, 2011. "The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 47-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel Van der Wel, 2009. "Are market makers uninformed and passive? Signing trades in the absence of quotes," Staff Reports 395, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Yan, Meng & Chen, Jian & Song, Victor & Xu, Ke, 2022. "Trade friction and price discovery in the USD–CAD spot and forward markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Hvozdyk, Lyudmyla, 2012. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury bond and futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1563-1575.
    7. Xiaojie Xu, 2019. "Price dynamics in corn cash and futures markets: cointegration, causality, and forecasting through a rolling window approach," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(2), pages 155-181, June.
    8. P. Sakthivel & Krishna Reddy Chittedi & Daniel Sakyi, 2017. "Price Discovery and Volatility Transmission in Currency Spot and Futures Markets in India: An Empirical Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 931-945, August.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Hvozdyk, Lyudmyla, 2010. "Cojumping: Evidence from the US Treasury Bond and Future Markets (Discussion Paper 2010-06)," Working Papers 10450, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 14 Jul 2010.
    10. Pedro Linhares Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello, 2014. "The Fourth Dimension: Derivatives As A Form Of Capital," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange futures; futures markets; Foreign exchange rates; Foreign exchange;
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