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Intra-day Futures Price Volatility: Information Effects and Variance Persistence


  • Locke, P R
  • Sayers, C L


This paper examines the role of the rate of information arrival proxy variables, as they relate to persistence in the variance structure of minute-by-minute S&P 500 Index Futures returns series. The role of contract volume, floor transactions, the number of price changes, executed order imbalance, and an information composite in reducing variance persistence is examined. All proxy variables are found to explain a significant amount of returns variance. While the characteristics of returns data vary daily, some evidence of remaining variance persistence is found, regardless of the definition of the rate of information arrival variable. Our results suggest that utilization of a pure ARCH-type model for high-frequency returns data implies a mis-specification. Copyright 1993 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Locke, P R & Sayers, C L, 1993. "Intra-day Futures Price Volatility: Information Effects and Variance Persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 15-30, Jan.-Marc.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:8:y:1993:i:1:p:15-30

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    3. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
    2. Chang, Yuanchen & Taylor, Stephen J., 2003. "Information arrivals and intraday exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 85-112, April.
    3. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    5. Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    7. Tan, Oon Geok & Gannon, Gerard L., 2002. "'Information effect' of economic news: SPI futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 467-489.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Ghysels, Eric, 1996. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 139-151, April.
    9. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Modelling the Intraday Return Volatility Process In The Australian Equity Market: An Examination Of The Role Of Information Arrival In S&P/Asx 50 Stocks," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 150, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    10. Joseph K.W. Fung, 2006. "Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures," Working Papers 132006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas & Floros, Christos, 2014. "Dynamic Spillover Effects in Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 53876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Shinn-Juh Lin & Jian Yang, 2000. "Examining Intraday Returns with Buy/Sell Information," Research Paper Series 38, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    13. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. repec:arp:ijefrr:2017:p:157--172 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Weaver, Robert D & Natcher, William C, 2000. "Commodity Price Volatility under New Market Orientations," MPRA Paper 9862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Shekar Bose, 2001. "Price volatility of south-east fishery's quota species: an empirical analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 283-297.
    17. Bildik, Recep, 2001. "Intra-day seasonalities on stock returns: evidence from the Turkish Stock Market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 387-417, December.
    18. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2002. "ARCH versus information-based variances: evidence from the Tokyo Stock Market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-231, April.
    19. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hodgson, Allan & Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2006. "Futures trading volume as a determinant of prices in different momentum phases," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 68-85.
    21. Kofman, Paul & Martens, Martin, 1997. "Interaction between stock markets: an analysis of the common trading hours at the London and New York stock exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 387-414, June.

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