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The Exchange Rate Effect of Multi-Currency Risk Arbitrage

Author

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  • Harald Hau

    (University of Geneva, Swiss Finance Institute, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute))

Abstract

This paper (i) proposes a simple multi-currency model of speculative foreign exchange (FX) trading, (ii) uses a natural experiment to identify the implied components of the optimal trading strategy, and (iii) proposes a new spectral inference method to strengthen the statistical evidence on the predicted shortrun exchange rate dynamics. Cross-sectional currency hedging effects are shown to be qualitatively large in their price impact and can contribute to the disconnect between exchange rates and fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Hau, 2012. "The Exchange Rate Effect of Multi-Currency Risk Arbitrage," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-07, Swiss Finance Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1207
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    2. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei & Zhu, Guozhong, 2017. "Is the Renminbi a safe haven?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 189-202.
    3. Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad & HongXing, Yao & Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Ali, Shoaib & Alhussam, Mohammed Ismail & Sohu, Jan Muhammad, 2023. "Artificial neural network (ANN)-based estimation of the influence of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic and emerging financial markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    4. David Gray, 2014. "Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 550-567, June.
    5. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021. "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Du, Jiangze & Wang, Jying-Nan & Hsu, Yuan-Teng & Lai, Kin Keung, 2018. "The importance of hedging currency risk: Evidence from CNY and CNH," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 81-92.
    7. Xin Yang & Shigang Wen & Zhifeng Liu & Cai Li & Chuangxia Huang, 2019. "Dynamic Properties of Foreign Exchange Complex Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-19, September.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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