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Is the Renminbi a safe haven?

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmas Fatum

    (University of Alberta)

  • Yohei Yamamoto

    (Hitotsubashi University)

  • Guozhong Zhu

    (University of Alberta)

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi in the offshore market against currencies that the safe haven literature typically considers as the traditional safe haven currency candidates. Our sample spans the February 2011 to May 2017 period. Band spectral regression models enable us to capture that the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi is frequency dependent. While we find evidence of some degree of safe haven currency behavior of the Renminbi during the early part of our sample, our findings do not support the suggestion that the Renminbi is currently a safe haven currency or that the Renminbi is progressing towards safe haven currency status.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmas Fatum & Yohei Yamamoto & Guozhong Zhu, "undated". "Is the Renminbi a safe haven?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_018, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2016_018
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    2. Hu, Genhua & Wang, Xiangjin & Qiu, Hong, 2023. "Analyzing a dynamic relation between RMB exchange rate onshore and offshore during the extreme market conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 408-417.
    3. Dai, Yixin & Yu, Cong & Xu, Xiangyun & Zhou, Jindie & Teng, Fengfan, 2024. "The macro driving factors of co-movement of RMB with other currencies in FX markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    4. Yu-Lun Chen, 2020. "News announcements and price discovery in the RMB–USD market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1487-1508, May.
    5. Janani Sri S. & Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2022. "Can Equity be Safe-haven for Investment?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 32-63, March.
    6. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Risk dependence of CoVaR and structural change between oil prices and exchange rates: A time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 80-92.
    7. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Sun, Yuying & Bao, Qin & Zheng, Jiali & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "Assessing the price dynamics of onshore and offshore RMB markets: An ITS model approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Dunbar, Kwamie, 2023. "CBDC uncertainty: Financial market implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Jia, Fei & Shen, Yao & Ren, Junfan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "The impact of offshore exchange rate expectations on onshore exchange rates: The case of Chinese RMB," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    11. Bouri, Elie & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies as hedges and safe-havens for US equity sectors," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 294-307.
    12. Wang, Peiwan & Zong, Lu, 2023. "Does machine learning help private sectors to alarm crises? Evidence from China’s currency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 611(C).
    13. Yuki MASUJIMA, 2017. "Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives," Discussion papers 17048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Yuki MASUJIMA, 2019. "Time-Variant Safe-Haven Currency Status and Determinants," Discussion papers 19048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Cheng, Xin & Chen, Hongyi & Zhou, Yinggang, 2021. "Is the renminbi a safe-haven currency? Evidence from conditional coskewness and cokurtosis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Wang, Yizhi & Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The Effects of Central Bank Digital Currencies News on Financial Markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Parthajit Kayal & Janani Sri SG, 2020. "Going Beyond Gold: Can Equities be Safe-Haven?," Working Papers 2020-203, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    18. Tom Pak Wing Fong & Alfred Yun Tong Wong, 2020. "Safehavenness of the Chinese renminbi," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 215-233, August.
    19. Ming, Lei & Yang, Ping & Tian, Xinyi & Yang, Shenggang & Dong, Minyi, 2023. "Safe haven for crude oil: Gold or currencies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Gemici, Eray & Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Predictability of risk appetite in Turkey: Local versus global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    21. He, Qing & Wang, Wenqing & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Exchange rate co-movements and corporate foreign exchange exposures: A study on RMB," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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