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Are market makers uninformed and passive? Signing trades in the absence of quotes

  • Michel van der Wel
  • Albert J. Menkveld
  • Asani Sarkar

We develop a new likelihood-based approach to signing trades in the absence of quotes. This approach is equally efficient as the existing Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods, but more than ten times faster. It can address the occurrence of multiple trades at the same time and allows for analysis of settings in which trade times are observed with noise. We apply this method to a high-frequency data set of thirty-year U.S. Treasury futures to investigate the role of the market maker. Most theory characterizes the market maker as an uninformed, passive supplier of liquidity. Our findings suggest, however, that some market makers actively demand liquidity for a substantial part of the day and that they are informed speculators

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 395.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:395
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  1. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  2. Geir Hoidal Bjonnes & Dagfinn Rime, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Paper 2003/10, Norges Bank.
  3. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-75.
  4. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
  5. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
  6. Sugato Chakravarty, 2002. "An examination of own account trading by dual traders in futures markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(5), pages A0.
  7. Chakravarity, Sugato & Li, Kai, 2002. "An Examination of Own Account Trading by Dual Traders in Future Markets," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1156, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  8. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  9. Menkveld, Albert J. & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre, 2007. "Modeling Around-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks Using State Space Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 213-225, April.
  10. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
  11. Anand, Amber & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Information and the Intermediary: Are Market Intermediaries Informed Traders in Electronic Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(01), pages 1-28, March.
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