IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20090046.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Market Makers Uninformed and Passive? Signing Trades in The Absence of Quotes

Author

Listed:
  • Michel van der Wel

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, CREATES, ERIM)

  • Albert Menkveld

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Asani Sarkar

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

We develop a new likelihood-based approach to sign trades in the absence of quotes. It is equally efficient as existing MCMC methods, but more than 10 times faster. It can deal with the occurrence of multiple trades at the same time, and noisily observed trade times. We apply this method to a high-frequency dataset of the 30Y U.S. treasury futures to investigate the role of the market maker. Most theory characterizes him as an uninformed passive liquidity supplier. Our results suggest that some market makers actively demand liquidity for a substantial part of the day and are informed speculators.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel van der Wel & Albert Menkveld & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Are Market Makers Uninformed and Passive? Signing Trades in The Absence of Quotes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-046/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20090046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/09046.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
    2. Chakravarty, Sugato & Li, Kai, 2003. "An examination of own account trading by dual traders in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 375-397, August.
    3. Menkveld, Albert J. & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre, 2007. "Modeling Around-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks Using State Space Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 213-225, April.
    4. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    5. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    9. Panayides, Marios A., 2007. "Affirmative obligations and market making with inventory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 513-542, November.
    10. Anand, Amber & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Information and the Intermediary: Are Market Intermediaries Informed Traders in Electronic Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 1-28, March.
    11. Terrence Hendershott & Charles M. Jones & Albert J. Menkveld, 2011. "Does Algorithmic Trading Improve Liquidity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 1-33, February.
    12. Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 529-551, December.
    13. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    14. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    15. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-975.
    16. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Statistical Properties of the Roll Serial Covariance Bid/Ask Spread Estimator," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 579-590, June.
    17. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
    19. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anne Opschoor & Michel van der Wel & Dick van Dijk & Nick Taylor, 2011. "On the Effects of Private Information on Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-077/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Opschoor, Anne & Taylor, Nick & van der Wel, Michel & van Dijk, Dick, 2014. "Order flow and volatility: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 185-201.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hendershott, Terrence & Menkveld, Albert J., 2014. "Price pressures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 405-423.
    3. Menkveld, Albert J. & Sarkar, Asani & van der Wel, Michel, 2008. "Customer flow, intermediaries, and the discovery of the equilibrium riskfree rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/47, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel Van der Wel, 2007. "Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures," Staff Reports 307, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    6. Piccotti, Louis R., 2016. "Pricing errors and the geography of trade in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-69.
    7. Opschoor, Anne & Taylor, Nick & van der Wel, Michel & van Dijk, Dick, 2014. "Order flow and volatility: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 185-201.
    8. Imen Kouki & Mahfuzul Haque, 2009. "Tunisian Dealer Behaviour in FX Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(3), pages 265-287, September.
    9. Erenburg, Grigori & Kurov, Alexander & Lasser, Dennis J., 2006. "Trading around macroeconomic announcements: Are all traders created equal?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 470-493, October.
    10. Carrion, Allen, 2013. "Very fast money: High-frequency trading on the NASDAQ," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 680-711.
    11. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    12. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    13. Leonardo Bargigli, 2021. "A model of market making with heterogeneous speculators," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, January.
    14. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Macro News, Riskfree Rates, and the Intermediary," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-086/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Jagjeev Dosanjh, 2017. "Exchange Initiatives and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Australian Securities Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2017.
    16. Vitale, Paolo, 1998. "Two months in the life of several gilt-edged market makers on the London Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 299-324, December.
    17. Rühl, Tobias R. & Stein, Michael, 2015. "The impact of ECB macro-announcements on bid–ask spreads of European blue chips," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 54-71.
    18. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2015. "Dark trading and price discovery," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 70-92.
    19. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Menkveld, Albert J., 2013. "High frequency trading and the new market makers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 712-740.
    21. Smales, L.A. & Apergis, N., 2017. "Understanding the impact of monetary policy announcements: The importance of language and surprises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 33-50.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    market microstructure; signing trades; market makers; treasury futures; discount rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20090046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.