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Foreign Exchange Forward and Futures Prices: Are They Equal?

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  • Dezhbakhsh, Hashem

Abstract

Small sample t-test results are reported in the literature that indicate the difference between futures and forward exchange rates are statistically insignificant. Much research draws on this finding, which is in contrast with theory. The evidence presented here suggests this difference does not follow a normal distribution, so the small sample inferences based on the t-tests may be suspect. As appropriate alternatives, nonparametric distribution-free tests are used to reexamine the difference for two sample periods, one covering the 1970s and the other the 1970s and 1980s. A significant divergence is observed for several currencies as well as for a sample of pooled currencies. The results are stronger for samples covering the 1980s. The economic significance of the forward-futures differentials is examined and theoretical justifications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 1994. "Foreign Exchange Forward and Futures Prices: Are They Equal?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 75-87, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:29:y:1994:i:01:p:75-87_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeng, Jau-Lian, 1999. "Interest parity, fractional differencing, and the strength of attraction: a reexamination of the cost-of-carry futures pricing model," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 25-34.
    2. Lioui, Abraham, 1998. "Currency risk hedging: Futures vs. forward," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-81, January.
    3. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Carolyn W. Chang & Jack S. K. Chang & Hsing Fang, 1996. "Optimal Futures Hedge With Marking-To-Market And Stochastic Interest Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 309-326, September.
    5. Lioui, Abraham, 1999. "Spreading currency forwards: why and how?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 305-317, February.
    6. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2002. "Optimal currency risk hedging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 241-264, April.

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