IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders

  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • Schmeling, Maik

This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes traders' characteristics in a foreign exchange electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify traders with high price impact. More information is conveyed by those traders' trades which--simultaneously--use medium-sized orders (practice stealth trading), have large trading volume, are located in a financial center, trade early in the trading session, at times of wide spreads and when the order book is thin.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VHN-4X1SBKB-1/2/c605361559c39cf1297f09218de21ebc
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Markets.

Volume (Year): 13 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 101-128

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:13:y:2010:i:1:p:101-128
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Chakravarty, Sugato, 2001. "Stealth-trading: Which traders' trades move stock prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 289-307, August.
  2. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, . "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  3. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2003. "Reputation and interdealer trading: a microstructure analysis of the Treasury Bond market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 99-141, April.
  4. Madhavan, A. & Smidt, S., 1991. "A Baysian Model of Intraday Specialist Pricing," Weiss Center Working Papers 2-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  5. Barclay, Michael J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1993. "Stealth trading and volatility : Which trades move prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-305, December.
  6. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, 06.
  7. Ho, Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 1981. "Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-73, March.
  8. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. " Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-69, December.
  9. Carol Osler & Alexander Mende & Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "Price Discovery in Currency Markets," Working Papers 03, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  10. Chung, Kee H. & Van Ness, Bonnie F. & Van Ness, Robert A., 1999. "Limit orders and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 255-287, August.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Patton, Andrew J, 2000. "Impacts of Trades in an Error-Correction Model of Quote Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6dm6093f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  12. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1994. "Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 179-213.
  13. Martin Evans, 2000. "FX trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working Papers gueconwpa~00-00-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  14. Martin Evans and David Lyons, 2001. "Time-Varying Liquidity in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers gueconwpa~01-01-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  15. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2004. "Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets: Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery," Discussion Papers 04-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  16. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "The Summary Informativeness of Stock Trades: An Econometric Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 571-95.
  17. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
  18. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 405-414, May.
  19. Dan Bernhardt & Eric Hughson, 1993. "Splitting Orders," Working Papers 888, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  20. Hasbrouck, Joel & Seppi, Duane J., 2001. "Common factors in prices, order flows, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 383-411, March.
  21. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-276, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  22. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Local Information in Foreign Exchange Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-331, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  23. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  24. Hoidal Bjonnes, Geir & Rime, Dagfinn, 2003. "Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 17, Institute for Financial Research.
  25. Burton Hollifield & Robert A. Miller & Patrik Sand�s, 2004. "Empirical Analysis of Limit Order Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1063.
  26. Chan, Louis K C & Lakonishok, Josef, 1995. " The Behavior of Stock Prices around Institutional Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1147-74, September.
  27. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. " Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
  28. Richard W. Sias & Laura T. Starks, 2006. "Changes in Institutional Ownership and Stock Returns: Assessment and Methodology," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2869-2910, November.
  29. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
  30. Geir Høidal Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2004. "Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market," Working Paper 2004/13, Norges Bank.
  31. Linda Goldberg & Rafael Tenorio, 1995. "Strategic Trading in a Two-Sided Foreign Exchange Auction," NBER Working Papers 5187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  33. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  34. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September.
  35. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2001. "The Geography of Investment: Informed Trading and Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 811-841, August.
  36. Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
  37. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  39. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2004. "Macroeconomic Order Flows: Explaining Equity and Exchange Rate Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  41. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586115 is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2623-2654, December.
  43. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521355643 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  45. Lei, Qin & Wu, Guojun, 2005. "Time-varying informed and uninformed trading activities," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 153-181, May.
  46. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  47. Hasbrouck, Joel & Saar, Gideon, 2009. "Technology and liquidity provision: The blurring of traditional definitions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 143-172, May.
  48. John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai & Tuomo O. Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Caught On Tape: Institutional Order Flow and Stock Returns," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2080, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  49. Madhavan, Ananth & Cheng, Minder, 1997. "In Search of Liquidity: Block Trades in the Upstairs and Downstairs Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 175-203.
  50. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, 06.
  51. Richard Payne, 2003. "Macroeconomic news, order flows and exchange rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp475, Financial Markets Group.
  52. Koski, Jennifer Lynch & Michaely, Roni, 2000. "Prices, Liquidity, and the Information Content of Trades," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 659-96.
  53. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2004. "Microstructure of the Yen/Dollar Foreign Exchange Market: Patterns of Intra-day Activity Revealed in the Electronic Broking System," NBER Working Papers 10856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  55. Bozcuk, Aslihan & Lasfer, M. Ameziane, 2005. "The Information Content of Institutional Trades on the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(03), pages 621-644, September.
  56. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  57. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
  58. Goldberg, Linda & Tenorio, Rafael, 1997. "Strategic trading in a two-sided foreign exchange auction1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 299-326, May.
  59. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  60. Harald Hau, 2001. "Location Matters: An Examination of Trading Profits," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1959-1983, October.
  61. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2007. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals and Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 13151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, June.
  63. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
  64. Christopher J. Malloy, 2005. "The Geography of Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 719-755, 04.
  65. Anand, Amber & Chakravarty, Sugato, 2007. "Stealth Trading in Options Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(01), pages 167-187, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:13:y:2010:i:1:p:101-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.