Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions
To what extent are the empirical regularities implied by market microstructure theories useful in predicting the short-run behavior of stock returns A two-equation econometric model of quote revisions and transaction returns is developed and used to identify the relative importance of different microstructure theories and to make predictions. Microstructure variables and lagged stock index futures returns have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power based on data observed at five-minute intervals. The most striking microstructure implication of the model, confirmed by the empirical results, specifies that the expected quote return is positively related to the deviation between the transaction price and the quote midpoint while the expected transaction return is negatively related to the same variable. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 7 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Oxford University Press, Journals Department, 2001 Evans Road, Cary, NC 27513 USA.|
Web page: http://www.rfs.oupjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www4.oup.co.uk/revfin/subinfo/|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:7:y:1994:i:1:p:179-213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.