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Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market

  • Richard K. Lyons.

This paper introduces a three-part transactions dataset to test various microstructural hypotheses about the spot foreign exchange market. In particular, we test for effects of trading volume on quoted prices through the two channels stressed in the literature: the information channel and the inventory-control channel. We find that trades have both a strong information effect and a strong inventory-control effect, providing support for both strands of microstructure theory. The bulk of equity-market studies also find an information effect; however, these studies typically interpret this as evidence of inside information. Since there are no insiders in the foreign exchange market, this finding suggests a broader conception of the information environment, at least in this context.

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Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Research Program in Finance Working Papers with number RPF-230.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 1993
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Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbrf:rpf-230
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  1. Charles Goodhart, 1990. "News and the Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp71, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June.
  3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  4. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
  5. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1994. "Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 317-348, June.
  6. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1991. "A Bayesian model of intraday specialist pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-134, November.
  7. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1990. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Working papers 3234-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  8. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March.
  9. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Optimal Transparency in a Dealership Market with an Application to Foreign Exchange," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-231, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Hasabrouck, Joel & Sofianos, George, 1993. " The Trades of Market Makers: An Empirical Analysis of NYSE Specialists," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1565-93, December.
  11. Manaster, Steven & Mann, Steven C, 1996. "Life in the Pits: Competitive Market Making and Inventory Control," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 953-75.
  12. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  13. Zabel, Edward, 1981. "Competitive Price Adjustment without Market Clearing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1201-21, September.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September.
  15. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  16. Roell, Ailsa, 1990. "Dual-capacity trading and the quality of the market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 105-124, June.
  17. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  18. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  19. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1988. "Trades, quotes, inventories, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, December.
  20. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-74, September.
  21. O'Hara, Maureen & Oldfield, George S., 1986. "The Microeconomics of Market Making," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 361-376, December.
  22. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1993. " An Analysis of Changes in Specialist Inventories and Quotations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1595-1628, December.
  23. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1989. "Insider Trading, Liquidity, and the Role of the Monopolist Specialist," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(2), pages 211-35, April.
  24. Mark D. Flood, 1993. "Market structure and inefficiency in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 1991-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  25. Stoll, Hans R, 1989. " Inferring the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 115-34, March.
  26. Admati, Anat R & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1989. "Divide and Conquer: A Theory of Intraday and Day-of-the-Week Mean Effects," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 189-223.
  27. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  28. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July.
  29. Lyons, Richard K., 1990. "Whence exchange rate overshooting: Money stock or flow?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 369-384, November.
  30. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1980. "Dealership market : Market-making with inventory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 31-53, March.
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