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Macroeconomic News, Order Flows, and Exchange Rates

  • Love, Ryan
  • Payne, Richard

In textbook models of exchange rate determination, the news contained in public information announcements is directly impounded into prices with there being no role for trading in this process of information assimilation. This paper directly tests this theoretical result using transaction level exchange rate return and trading data and a sample of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. The main result of the paper is that even information that is publicly and simultaneously released to all market participants is partially impounded into prices via the key micro level price determinant—order flow. We quantify the role that order flow plays and find that approximately one third of price-relevant information is incorporated via the trading process.

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Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 43 (2008)
Issue (Month): 02 (June)
Pages: 467-488

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Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:43:y:2008:i:02:p:467-488_00
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  1. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1994. "Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 317-348, June.
  4. Hoffman, Dennis L & Schlagenhauf, Don E, 1985. "The Impact of News and Alternative Theories of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 328-46, August.
  5. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
  6. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51.
  7. Jain, Prem C, 1988. "Response of Hourly Stock Prices and Trading Volume to Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 219-31, April.
  8. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
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