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Price Dynamics in the Regular and E-Mini Futures Markets

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  • Kurov, Alexander
  • Lasser, Dennis J.

Abstract

This paper examines the price dynamics in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index futures contracts. By utilizing transactions data with attached trader type identification codes, we are able to analyze price dynamics for trades initiated by exchange locals and off-exchange customers. The empirical results show that price discovery appears to be initiated in the E-mini index futures contracts and that trades initiated by exchange locals seem to be more informative than those initiated by off-exchange traders. Furthermore, results show that exchange locals appear to make informed trades on the E-mini contracts around large trades that occur on the open outcry floor. We maintain that the exchange locals' ability to observe pit dynamics may contribute toward explaining the price leadership of the Emini contracts. Overall, the results are consistent with the notion that exchange locals are informed traders who derive their informational advantage from the proximity to order flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurov, Alexander & Lasser, Dennis J., 2004. "Price Dynamics in the Regular and E-Mini Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 365-384, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:39:y:2004:i:02:p:365-384_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Qin Wang & Jun Zhang, 2016. "Trade Size Clustering In The E-Mini Index Futures Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 247-262, September.
    2. Anand, Amber & Gatchev, Vladimir A. & Madureira, Leonardo & Pirinsky, Christo A. & Underwood, Shane, 2011. "Geographic proximity and price discovery: Evidence from NASDAQ," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 193-226, May.
    3. Helder Sebastião, 2008. "The partial adjustment factors of FTSE 100 stock index and stock index futures: The informational impact of electronic trading systems," GEMF Working Papers 2008-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Marc Simpson & Jose Moreno & Teofilo Ozuna, 2012. "The makings of an information leader: the intraday price discovery process for individual stocks in the DJIA," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 347-365, April.
    6. M. Illueca & J. Lafuente, 2008. "Introducing the mini-futures contract on Ibex 35: implications for price discovery and volatility transmission," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 197-219, September.
    7. Erenburg, Grigori & Kurov, Alexander & Lasser, Dennis J., 2006. "Trading around macroeconomic announcements: Are all traders created equal?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 470-493, October.
    8. Chung, Huimin & Sheu, Her-Jiun & Hsu, Shufang, 2010. "Trading platform, market volatility and pricing efficiency in the floor-traded and E-mini index futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 742-754, October.
    9. Helder Sebastião, 2012. "The Relative Contemporaneous Information Response. A New Cointegration-Based Measure of Price Discovery," GEMF Working Papers 2012-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Locke, Peter & Onayev, Zhan, 2007. "Order flow, dealer profitability, and price formation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 857-887, September.
    11. Jan Hanousek & František Kopøiva, 2011. "Detecting Information-Driven Trading in a Dealers Market," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 204-229, July.
    12. Siu-Kai Choy & Hua Zhang, 2010. "Trading costs and price discovery," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 37-57, January.
    13. Pantisa Pavabutr & Piyamas Chaihetphon, 2010. "Price discovery in the Indian gold futures market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 455-467, October.
    14. Fang Cai, 2009. "Trader Exploitation Of Order Flow Information During The Ltcm Crisis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 261-284.
    15. An-Sing Chen & Hui-Jyuan Gao & Mark Leung, 2008. "Is Trading Imbalance a Better Explanatory Factor in the Volatility Process? Intraday and Daily Evidence from E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures and Information-Based Hypotheses," Working Papers 0039, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    16. repec:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:153-166 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Karan Bhanot & Donald Lien & Margot Quijano, 2008. "Will Pulling Out the Rug Help? Uncertainty about Fannie and Freddie’s Federal Guarantee and the Cost of the Subsidy," Working Papers 0035, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    18. Chen, Wei-Peng & Chung, Huimin & Lien, Donald, 2016. "Price discovery in the S&P 500 index derivatives markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 438-452.
    19. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2017. "Time-Varying Price Discovery and Autoregressive Loading Factors: Evidence from S&P 500 Cash and E-Mini Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 81999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Menkveld, Albert J. & Sarkar, Asani & van der Wel, Michel, 2008. "Customer flow, intermediaries, and the discovery of the equilibrium riskfree rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/47, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    21. Alexander Kurov, 2008. "Information And Noise In Financial Markets: Evidence From The E-Mini Index Futures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 247-270.
    22. Tse, Yiuman & Xiang, Ju, 2005. "Market quality and price discovery: Introduction of the E-mini energy futures," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 164-179, December.
    23. Kao, Erin H. & Ho, Tsung-wu & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2015. "Price linkage between the US and Japanese futures across different time zones: An analysis of the minute-by-minute data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 321-336.
    24. Scott Brown & Timothy Koch & Eric Powers, 2009. "Slippage And The Choice Of Market Or Limit Orders In Futures Trading," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 309-335.
    25. Frantisek Kopriva, 2008. "Source of Information-Driven Trading on the Prague Stock Exchange," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp365, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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