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Random Walk Theory and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies

Listed author(s):
  • Nikola Gradojević

    ()

    (Faculty of Business Administration, Lakehead University, Canada)

  • Vladimir Djaković

    ()

    (Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Serbia)

  • Goran Andjelić

    ()

    (Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Serbia)

This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay’s (1988) conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright’s (2000) non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990) and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.

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File URL: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/casopis/2010_3/04.pdf
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Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

Volume (Year): 57 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 303-320

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Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:57:y:2010:i:3:p:303-320
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/

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  2. Michael Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Commercially Available Order Flow Data and Exchange Rate Movements: "Caveat Emptor"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 583-625, 06.
  3. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
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  15. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
  16. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-364, Oct.-Dec..
  17. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
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