Random Walk Theory and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies
This paper investigates the validity of the random walk theory in the Euro-Serbian dinar exchange rate market. We apply Andrew Lo and Archie MacKinlay’s (1988) conventional variance ratio test and Jonathan Wright’s (2000) non-parametric ranks and signs based variance ratio tests to the daily Euro/Serbian dinar exchange rate returns using the data from January 2005 - December 2008. Both types of variance ratio tests overwhelmingly reject the random walk hypothesis over the data span. To assess the robustness of our findings, we examine the forecasting performance of a non-linear, nonparametric model in the spirit of Francis Diebold and James Nason (1990) and find that it is able to significantly improve upon the random walk model, thus confirming the existence of foreign exchange market imperfections in a small transition economy such as Serbia. In the last part of the paper, we conduct a comparative study on how our results relate to those of other transition economies in the region.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1986.
"The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model,"
Special Studies Papers
205, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
- Michael Sager & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Commercially Available Order Flow Data and Exchange Rate Movements: "Caveat Emptor"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 583-625, 06.
- Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005.
"Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting,"
gueconwpa~05-05-01, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 405-414, May.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 11042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201.
- Chang, Eui Jung & Lima, Eduardo Jose Araujo & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "Testing for predictability in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 295-316, September.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001.
"Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?,"
464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Qi, Min & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 623-640, December.
- Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
- Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006.
"Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
- William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Martin Boyer & Simon van Norden, 2006.
"Exchange Rates and Order Flow in the Long Run,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DMARIANO: RATS procedure to compute Diebold-Mariano Forecast Comparison Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00055, Boston College Department of Economics.
- René Garcia & Ramazan Gençay, 1998.
"Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities with Neural Networks and a Homogeneity Hint,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Garcia, Rene & Gencay, Ramazan, 2000. "Pricing and hedging derivative securities with neural networks and a homogeneity hint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 93-115.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
- Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009.
"Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach,"
Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
- Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2006. "Testing for Efficiency in Selected Developing Foreign Exchange Markets: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 0717, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-364, Oct.-Dec..
- Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998.
"Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel,"
98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
- Lisi, Francesco & Medio, Alfredo, 1997. "Is a random walk the best exchange rate predictor?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 255-267, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:57:y:2010:i:3:p:303-320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivana Horvat)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.