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Order flows and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle

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  • Evans, Martin D.D.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to establish the link between the high frequency dynamics of spot exchange rates and developments in the macroeconomy. To do so, I first present a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination that bridges the gap between existing microstructure and traditional models. The model examines how dispersed microeconomic information known to individual agents outside the foreign exchange market is aggregated and transmitted to dealers via transaction flows (i.e., order flow); and how the information is then embedded in the spot exchange rate. I then report empirical evidence that strongly supports the presence of the link between the macroeconomy, order flow, and high frequency exchange rate returns implied by the model. In fact, my empirical results indicate that between 20 and 30% of the variance in excess currency returns over one- and two-month horizons can be linked back to developments in the macroeconomy. This level of explanatory power is an order of magnitude higher than that found in traditional models -- even the newly developed monetary models incorporating central banks reaction functions. Moreover, it provides a straightforward solution to the exchange-rate disconnect puzzle. Namely, the high frequency behavior of spot exchange rates reflects the flow of new information reaching dealers concerning the slowly evolving state of the macroeconomy, rather than the effects of shocks that drive rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Martin D.D., 2010. "Order flows and the exchange rate disconnect puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 58-71, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:80:y:2010:i:1:p:58-71
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    Cited by:

    1. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 428, Bank for International Settlements.
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    4. Martin D. D. Evans & Dagfinn Rime, 2017. "Order Flow Information and Spot Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 17, pages 725-776 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    8. Dagfinn Rime & Hans Jørgen Tranvåg, 2012. "The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence," Working Paper 2012/01, Norges Bank.
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    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Andrés Murcia & Diego Rojas, 2014. "Determinantes de la tasa de cambio en Colombia: un enfoque de microestructura de mercados," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(74), pages 52-67, June.
    12. José Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés F. García-Suaza, 2012. "A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 66-77.
    13. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2012. "Order Flow and the Real: Indirect Evidence of the Effectiveness of Sterilized Interventions," Working Papers Series 273, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    16. repec:bok:journl:v:23:y:2017:i:3:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:172-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 601-634, April.
    19. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. José Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés F. García-Suaza, 2012. "A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(5), pages 66-77, September.
    21. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, pages 121-141.
    22. Lock, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Flujos de órdenes en el mercado cambiario y el valor intrínseco del Nuevo Sol," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 29, pages 33-54.
    23. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Macroeconomic and market microstructure modelling of Ugandan exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 175-186.
    24. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    Exchange rate dynamics The exchange rate disconnect puzzle Microstructure Order Flow;

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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