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Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach

  • Craig Burnside
  • Martin S. Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo

High-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate relative to low-interest-rate currencies. We argue that adverse-selection problems between participants in foreign exchange markets can account for this 'forward premium puzzle.' The key feature of our model is that the adverse selection problem facing market makers is worse when, based on public information, a currency is expected to appreciate.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13278.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13278.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Publication status: published as Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-54, July.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13278
Note: EFG IFM ME
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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Shin, Hyun, 2000. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1273, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
  3. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2005. "International equity flows and returns: a quantitative equilibrium approach," International Finance 0508006, EconWPA.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  5. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2003. "Reputation and interdealer trading: a microstructure analysis of the Treasury Bond market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 99-141, April.
  6. Tracy Yue Wang & David Hirshleifer & Bing Han, 2010. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," 2010 Meeting Papers 1201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2007. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 1-30.
  8. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Papers 05.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  9. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2001. "Does one Soros make a difference?: a theory of currency crises with large and small traders," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25045, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
  12. Albuquerque, Rui & de Francisco, Eva & Marques, Luis, 2006. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 5604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
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