IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

  • Moore, Michael J.
  • Roche, Maurice J.

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rates disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habit persistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with 'deep' habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261-5606(10)00034-3
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 1151-1170

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:1151-1170
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Michael J. Moore, 1997. "Covered Purchasing Power Parity, Ex-ante PPP and Risk Aversion," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 397-412.
  3. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1990. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 792, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Papers 05.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  5. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Pricing to Habits and the Law of One Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 232-238, May.
  6. Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1993. "Satisfaction and Comparison Income," Economics Discussion Papers 10018, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Poonawala, Jumana, 2009. "The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies," Scholarly Articles 4448888, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  8. Harald Uhlig & Lars Ljungqvist, 2000. "Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management under Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 356-366, June.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Geert Bekaert, 1994. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June.
  13. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  15. Backus, David K., 1993. "Interpreting comovements in the trade balance and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 375-387, May.
  16. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
  17. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  18. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
  19. Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  20. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," International Finance 0004002, EconWPA.
  21. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Staff Report 371, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  22. Thomas Crossley & Hamish Low, 2005. "Is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution constant?," IFS Working Papers W05/25, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  23. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
  24. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  25. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
  26. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2001. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Fisher, Eric O'N., 2006. "The forward premium in a model with heterogeneous prior beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 48-70, February.
  28. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  29. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
  31. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  32. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
  34. Brandt, Michael W. & Cochrane, John H. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2006. "International risk sharing is better than you think, or exchange rates are too smooth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 671-698, May.
  35. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics (March 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  36. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 11633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Oswald, Andrew J, 1997. "Happiness and Economic Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1815-31, November.
  38. Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_97-2, March.
  39. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  40. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, . "Pricing To Market, Staggered Contracts, And Real Exchange Rate Persistence," Department of Economics 99-01, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  41. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  42. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F660-72, November.
  43. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  44. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 1999. "The Forward Premium Puzzle: Different Tales from Developed and Emerging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
  47. Hau, Harald, 1998. "Competitive Entry and Endogenous Risk in the Foreign Exchange Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 757-87.
  48. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  49. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2002. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-411, December.
  50. John A. Carlson & Christian M. Dahl & Carol L. Osler, 2008. "Short-run Exchange-rate Dynamics: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers 39, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  51. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  52. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-17, August.
  53. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  55. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  56. repec:oup:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:1:p:195-218 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Deep Habits," NBER Working Papers 10261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2008. "Volatile and persistent real exchange rates with or without sticky prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 423-433, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:1151-1170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.