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Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

  • Maurice J. Roche


    (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland)

  • Michael J. Moore


    (School of Management and Economics, The Queen's University of Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland)

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. This is set within a limited participation framework. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for (a) the low volatility of the forward discount (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profits (c) the even higher volatility of spot rate changes (d) the persistence in the forward discount and (e) the random walk in spot exchange rates The major innovation is that it is able to replicate some of the extent of the bias of the forward discount as a predictor of realised spot rate changes.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n910799.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jul 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n910799
Contact details of provider: Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
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  1. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. A. Abel, 2010. "Asset prices under habit formation and catching up with the Jones," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1395, David K. Levine.
  3. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 491-505, November.
  4. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
  5. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
  7. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1990. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 792, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  10. Michael J. Moore, 1997. "Covered Purchasing Power Parity, Ex-ante PPP and Risk Aversion," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 397-412.
  11. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
  12. Geert Bekaert, 1994. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Michael J Moore; & Maurice Roche, 1995. "Liquidity in the Forward Exchange Market," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n580795, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  14. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  15. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  16. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, . "Interpreting the Forward Premium Anomoly," GSIA Working Papers 15, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  17. Harald Uhlig & Lars Ljungqvist, 2000. "Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management under Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 356-366, June.
  18. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
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