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The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors

  • Burton Hollifield
  • Armir Yaron

This paper attempts to identify and isolate the channels by which inflation shocks effect the predictable returns available from currency speculation. We apply a general no--arbitrage based model to decompose the risk premium into inflation and real risk and their interactions. Using two different empirical methods to identify these components, we find that virtually none of the predictable variation in returns from currency speculation can be explained empirically by either inflation risk or the relationship between inflation and real risks. Our results imply that for monetary policy to have significant effects on the risk--premia for currency speculation, monetary policy must have little effect on inflation risk, the relationship between real risk and inflation risk, and instead must mainly impact real exchange rate risk.

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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2001-E13.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:-1655358232
Contact details of provider: Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 2000. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1895, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
  3. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 491-505, November.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
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  7. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  8. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Chris I. Telmer, 1990. "Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency," Working Papers 792, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  11. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1994. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Geert Bekaert, 1994. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1993. "Profits, risk, and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 259-286, November.
  14. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  15. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-9, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  16. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
  17. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  18. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
  19. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  20. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  21. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
  22. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  23. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates in Sticky Price Models of International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
  25. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
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