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Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

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  • Kocenda, Evzen
  • Poghosyan, Tigran

Abstract

We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. We derive the observable macroeconomic factors--consumption and inflation--using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and the factors are modeled using a multivariate GARCH-in-mean specification. Our findings show that both real and nominal factors play important roles in explaining the variability of the foreign exchange risk premium. Both types of factors should be included in monetary general equilibrium models employed to study excess returns. To contribute to the further stability of domestic currencies, the new EU members should strive to implement stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal as well as real convergence with the core EU members.

Suggested Citation

  • Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:2164-2173
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    Cited by:

    1. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.
    2. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
    3. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda, 2016. "Trade in Parts and Components across Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(3), pages 236-262, June.
    4. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2012. "Specialization, gravity, and European trade in final goods," Working Papers 320, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    5. Buscher, Herbert S. & Gabrisch, Hubert, 2011. "What Might Central Banks Lose or Gain in Case of Euro Adoption – A GARCH-Analysis of Money Market Rates for Sweden, Denmark and the UK," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    7. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "The Extreme Risk Problem for Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    8. Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "Short- and Long-term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 137-150.
    9. Guillermo Benavides & Isela Elizabeth Téllez-León & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2015. "Effects of Volatility of the Exchange Rate on Inflation Expectations and Growth Prospects in Mexico (2002-2014)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 63-78, November.
    10. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:650:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130.
    12. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.
    13. Evžen Kočenda, . "Survey of Volatility and Spillovers on Financial Markets," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, pages 1-13.
    14. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T Orlowski, 2011. "Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(4), pages 511-534, December.
    15. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The Forward Premium Puzzle And Risk Premiums," MPRA Paper 42472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Huang, Lin & Wu, Jia & Zhang, Rui, 2014. "Exchange risk and asset returns: A theoretical and empirical study of an open economy asset pricing model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 96-116.
    17. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
    19. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
    20. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, pages 73-88.
    21. repec:fau:fauart:v:67:y:2017:i:3:p:199-220 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Gabrisch, Hurbert & Orlowski, Lucjan, 2009. "Interest Rate Convergence in the Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Working Papers 2009001, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
    23. Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "Short- and Long-term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 137-150, February.
    24. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange risk Time-varying risk premium Stochastic discount factor Multivariate GARCH-in-mean New EU member countries;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • P59 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Other

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