IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

  • Evzen Kocenda

    (CERGE-EI ; W.Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Business School ; CEPR)

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non- existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic univariate time series. The procedure does not impose restrictions on the nature of data since it allows trending and unit- root regressors. The results depend in a striking way on the economic climate of a particular country. In Balkan countries, which belong to less stable economies, the measures adopted by monetary authorities indeed brought about a structural break in exchange rate behavior. In more stable transition economies, such as those in Central Europe, the monetary steps tended to stabilize the exchange rate behavior. Finally, the exchange rates of the Baltic countries offer mixed results.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0012009.

in new window

Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 16 Feb 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0012009
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 21 ; figures: included
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Jan Fidrmuc & Ariane Tichit, 2004. "Mind the Break! Accounting for Changing Patterns of Growth during Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-643, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Morris Goldstein (ed.), 1999. "Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System: The Future International Financial Architecture," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 50, January.
  4. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1996. "Economic Transition and the Exchange-Rate Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 147-52, May.
  5. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Jeronimo Zettelmeyer, 2000. "The Impact of Monetary Policyon the Exchange Rate; Evidence From Three Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/141, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1995. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Alston Flynn, N. & Boucher, Janice L., 1993. "Tests of long-run Purchasing Power Parity using alternative methodologies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 109-122.
  9. Ozmen, Erdal & Parmaksiz, Kagan, 2003. "Policy regime change and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the UK evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-149, February.
  10. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Business Cycle Measurement in the Presence of Structural Change: International Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W33, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  14. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
  16. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1995. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard: can they be explained by the trend break model?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 539-548, August.
  17. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  18. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
  19. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  20. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  21. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  22. Yangru Wu, 1997. "The trend behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence from OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(2), pages 282-296, 06.
  23. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
  24. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1997. "International trade and structural change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 513-523, November.
  25. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October.
  26. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  27. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
  28. Edison, Hali J. & Fisher, Eric O'N, 1991. "A long-run view of the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-70, March.
  29. Peter J. Quirk, 1994. "Fixed or Floating Exchange Regimes; Does it Matter for Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 94/134, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Cukierman, A. & Kiguel, M. & Leiderman, L., 2000. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Bands : Balancing Credibility and Flexibility," Discussion Paper 2000-107, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  31. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Tsai, Li-Ju & Chen, Show-Lin, 2004. "Are real exchange rates non-stationary? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 425-438, April.
  32. Jiawen Yang, 1997. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 95-104, February.
  33. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  34. Paolo Mauro & Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes; A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund.
  35. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:818-49 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey & Neyapti, Bilin, 2001. "Central Bank Reform, Liberalization and Inflation in Transition Economies - An International Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  37. Erdal Ozmen & Kağan Parmaksiz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the French evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 217-222.
  38. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-275, June.
  39. Bleaney, Michael & Fielding, David, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes, inflation and output volatility in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 233-245, June.
  40. Ewing, Bradley T. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2001. "Unit roots and structural breaks in North American unemployment rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 273-282, November.
  41. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
  43. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g-7 economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 232-246, 08.
  44. Frensch, Richard, 2001. "Some perspectives on currency relations between EMU and Central and East European EU accession countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 175-181, September.
  45. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  46. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0012009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.