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Structural Change and International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Ben-David, Dan
  • Papell, David

Abstract

This paper examines trends in trade behaviour of 48 countries since the Second World War. In light of the substantial movement towards removal of trade impediments world-wide during the post-war period, this paper attempts to determine if, and when, countries experienced significant changes in the paths of their export-GDP and import-GDP ratios. We find that: (1) the time-paths of the trade ratios in most countries exhibit a structural break during the post-war period; (2) the extent of trade following the breaks exceeded the pre-break trade levels for the majority of countries; (3) the relationship between the timing of the break for imports and the timing of the break for exports is not particularly strong; and (4) there is little relation between the extent of the post-break to pre-break changes in imports and the post-break to pre-break changes in exports for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1997. "Structural Change and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1568
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    Cited by:

    1. Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, 2006. "Trade Liberalization Or Oil Shocks: Which Explains Structural Breaks In International Trade Ratios?," Working Papers 0613, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    2. Marta Arespa & Diego Gruber, 2021. "Product Quality and International Price Dynamics over the Business Cycle," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1054-1074, October.
    3. Marcela Sabaté, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and Nonstationarities in International Trade Series," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp309, IIIS.
    4. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, September.
    5. Suleiman ABU-BADER & Aamer S. ABU-QARN, 2008. "The Impact Of Gatt On International Trade: Evidence From Structural Break Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 23-36.
    6. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
    7. Alvaro Pereira & João Jalles & Martin Andresen, 2012. "Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 35-82, April.
    8. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2009. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade," Discussion Papers in Economics 10963, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    9. Michael W. Robbins & Colin M. Gallagher & Robert B. Lund, 2016. "A General Regression Changepoint Test for Time Series Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(514), pages 670-683, April.
    10. Saygılı, Hülya & Saygılı, Mesut, 2011. "Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 342-360.
    11. Robinson Kruse & Sanne Hiller, 2010. "Milestones of European Integration: Which matters most for Export Openness?," CREATES Research Papers 2010-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Nuno Ferreira & Rui Menezes & Sónia Bentes, 2014. "Cointegration and Structural Breaks in the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 4(1), pages 680-680.
    13. Enrica De Cian, 2006. "International Technology Spillovers in Climate-Economy Models: Two Possible Approaches," Working Papers 2006.141, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Fiteni, Inmaculada, 2004. "[tau]-estimators of regression models with structural change of unknown location," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 19-44, March.
    16. Balandina, M. S., 2017. "International trade as a channel of influence of globalization on economic development of the countries-parties of OBOR initiative," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 3(4), pages 231-242.
    17. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Breaks in the breaks: An analysis of divorce rates in Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 242-255.
    18. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2010. "Unilateral Divorce vs. Child Custody and Child Support in the U.S," MPRA Paper 24695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Nuno Ferreira & Rui Menezes & Manuela M. Oliveira, 2013. "Structural Breaks and Cointegration Analysis in the EU Developed Markets," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 3(4), pages 652-652.
    20. González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2012. "Unilateral divorce versus child custody and child support in the U.S," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 613-643.
    21. Holmes Mark J. & Panagiotidis Theodore, 2009. "Cointegration and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning the Behavior of the U.S. Current Account," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, June.
    22. Rafael González-Val, 2022. "A Time Series Analysis of Judicial Foreclosures in Spain," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-22, October.
    23. Elisabeth Beckmann & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Oil Price Shock and Structural Changes in CMEA Trade: Pouring Oil on Troubled Waters?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 9(1), pages 31-49, April.
    24. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. "Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-170, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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