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The Impact Of Gatt On International Trade: Evidence From Structural Break Analysis

  • Suleiman ABU-BADER

    ()

  • Aamer S. ABU-QARN

In this study we test for structural changes in international trade patterns of 77 countries over the post-WWII period, to examine if they experienced a substantial increase in their trade ratios following major GATT rounds such as the Kennedy Round, or after joining GATT. Our results show that trade ratios of most of these countries exhibited structural breaks in their time paths, however, most of the postbreak paths were below the extrapolated prebreak paths. Furthermore, while the significant break years coincided closely with major regional and international events such as the oil shocks of the 70s and the East-Asian financial crisis in 1997, they occurred far before or after the time of a country's accession to GATT or the time of the major GATT rounds.

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 23-36

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:2_3
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  1. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 417-27, May.
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
  6. Shang-Jin Wei & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Papers 03/185, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1997. "International Trade and Structural Change," NBER Working Papers 6096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Irwin, Douglas A, 1995. "The GATT in Historical Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 323-28, May.
  10. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
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