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Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale
[Tariff Liberalisation and Trade Growth: a Comparative Historical Analysis to Assess the Multilateral Trading System]

  • Nenci, Silvia

The aim of this work is to estimate the relationship between tariff barriers and trade growth at the world level applying a long-term approach and comparing different trade regimes. At the same time it aims at giving useful insights to assess the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system in fostering international trade. The distinctive feature of this study is the use of a long term data set concerning tariffs and trade of twenty-three countries (which account for over 60 per cent of world trade of the entire period) for the 1870-2000 time span. Using times series and panel data analyses the author shows as the existence of a long run relationship between tariffs reduction and trade growth at the world level is quantitatively noteworthy exclusively in the period before the Second World War while it weakens starting from 1950. The empirical results do not controvert the role that the GATT/WTO system has played in the tariff reduction process but underline as its main effect has been linked to the creation of a rule-based environment governing global trade relations, through which uncertainty was reduced and the spread of best practices promoted.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/645/1/MPRA_paper_645.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 645.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:645
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  1. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert C. Feenstra, 1995. "Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 5051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?," NBER Working Papers 10207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Leith, James Clark & Reuber, Grant L, 1969. "The Impact of the Industrial Countries' Tariff Structure on Their Imports of Manufactures from Less-Developed Areas: A Comment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 36(141), pages 75-80, February.
  6. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2001. "Globalization and Inequality: Historical Trends," NBER Working Papers 8339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Jakob B. Madsen, 2001. "Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 848-868, April.
  9. Douglas A. Irwin, 1993. "The GATT's contribution to economic recovery in post-war Western Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 442, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. John H. Coatsworth & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "The Roots of Latin American Protectionism: Looking Before the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 8999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, . "What does Liberalisation do for Exports and Growth?," Working Papers ec4/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
  12. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
  13. Bela Balassa, 1965. "Tariff Protection in Industrial Countries: An Evaluation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 573.
  14. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. O'Rourke, K, 1997. "Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century," Papers 97/18, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
  16. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Ray, Edward John, 1981. "Tariff and Nontariff Barriers to Trade in the United States and Abroad," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 161-68, May.
  18. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F50-F72, 02.
  19. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  20. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February.
  21. Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin, 1999. "Two Waves of Globalisation: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences," NBER Working Papers 6904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 2.
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