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Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

  • Rose, Andrew K

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large dataset covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25- year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral dataset. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4246.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4246
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  1. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
  2. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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