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Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

  • Andrew K. Rose

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral data set. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10207.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10207.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Rose, Andrew K. "Does The WTO Make Trade More Stable?," Open Economies Review, 2005, v16(1,Jan), 7-22.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10207
Note: ITI
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  1. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?," Working Papers 182002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
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