IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/esohwp/_075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Century of Economic Growth in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Astorga

Abstract

This paper makes a contribution to the study of economic growth in developing countries by analysing the six largest Latin American Economies over 105 years within a two-equation framework. Confirming previous findings, physical and human capital prove to be key determinants of GDP per capita growth. However, a more controversial result is an overall negative conditional correlation between trade openness and GDP per head growth - though openness has a positive link via investment. The evidence also shows that macroeconomic instability has been a drag on long-term growth in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Astorga, 2009. "A Century of Economic Growth in Latin America," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _075, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/history/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:econom:v:66:y:1999:i:262:p:157-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-011, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    4. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    6. Hofman, André A., 2000. "The economic development of Latin America in the twentieth century," Copublicaciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1650 edited by Eclac, November.
    7. Baldwin, Richard & Seghezza, Elena, 1996. "Trade-induced Investment-led Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Valpy Fitzgerald & Pablo Astorga & Ame R. Bergés, 2003. "Productivity Growth in Latin America during the Twentieth Century," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _052, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Trade, Innovation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 86-91, May.
    10. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    11. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    12. John H. Coatsworth & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "The Roots of Latin American Protectionism: Looking Before the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 8999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    14. Luis Servén, 2003. "ERRATUM: Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 492-492, May.
    15. O'Rourke, Kevin H, 2000. "Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 456-483, April.
    16. Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2002. "How Robust Is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 57-80, March.
    17. Mohammed, Saif I. Shah & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2004. "Freight rates and productivity gains in British tramp shipping 1869-1950," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 172-203, April.
    18. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "Economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-84, July.
    19. David Stasavage, 2000. "Private Investment and Political Uncertainty," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 25, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    20. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    21. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
    22. Seghezza, Elena & Baldwin, Richard E., 2008. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 507-537.
    23. Pritchett, Lant & Sethi, Geeta, 1994. "Tariff Rates, Tariff Revenue, and Tariff Reform: Some New Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, January.
    24. Stasavage, David, 2000. "Private investment and political uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6653, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    25. Pablo Astorga & Ame R. Berges & Valpy Fitzgerald, 2005. "The standard of living in Latin America during the twentieth century," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 58(4), pages 765-796, November.
    26. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    27. Rosemary Thorp, 1998. "Progress, Poverty and Exclusion: An Economic History of Latin America in the 20th Century," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 79303, February.
    28. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    29. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    30. Pablo Astorga & Ame R. Bergés & Valpy Fitzgerald, 2003. "Productivity Growth in Latin America during the Twentieth Century," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _052, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    31. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    33. Taylor, Alan M., 1998. "On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development: Price Distortions, Growth, and Divergence in Latin America," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 1-28, March.
    34. Nancy Birdsall & Amar Hamoudi, 2002. "Commodity Dependence, Trade, and Growth: When "Openness" is Not Enough," Working Papers 7, Center for Global Development.
    35. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Fundamental Sources of Long-Run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 184-188, May.
    36. Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis & Carlos Winograd, 1997. "Argentina in the 20th Century: An Account of Long-Awaited Growth," Post-Print hal-03060046, HAL.
    37. Astorga, Pablo, 2007. "Real exchange rates in Latin America : what does the 20th century reveal?," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp07-03, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    38. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando, 1999. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 315-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cruzatti C., John, 2021. "Free Trade Agreements and Development: a Global Analysis with Local Data," Working Papers 0702, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    2. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    3. Clara Inés Pardo Martínez, 2010. "Investments and Energy Efficiency in Colombian Manufacturing Industries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 21(6), pages 545-562, October.
    4. Atangana Ondoa Henri, 2019. "Heavily indebted poor countries initiative (HIPC), debt relief, economic stability and economic growth in Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 89-121, May.
    5. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Industrial Catching Up in the Poor Periphery 1870-1975," NBER Working Papers 16809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ariel Dinar & Kurt Schwabe (ed.), 2015. "Handbook of Water Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15535.
    7. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2011. "Industrial Catching Up in the Poor Periphery 1870-1975," CEPR Discussion Papers 8335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2010. "Inserção comercial do Brasil na américa do sul: um estudo sobre os efeitos da China na região," Textos para discussão 248, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    9. Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2019. "Technological change, technological catch-up and export orientation: evidence from Latin American Countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 85-100, December.
    10. Beatriz Barrado & Gregorio Gimenez & Jaime Sanaú, 2021. "The Use of Decomposition Methods to Understand the Economic Growth Gap between Latin America and East Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Tamás Vonyó & Alexander Klein, 2019. "Why did socialist economies fail? The role of factor inputs reconsidered," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(1), pages 317-345, February.
    12. Gani, Azmat & Clemes, Michael D., 2013. "Modeling the effect of the domestic business environment on services trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 297-304.
    13. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Navarrete Gallo, Pamela L. & Ritzen, Jo, 2021. "Do institutions and ideology matter for economic growth in Latin America in the first two decades of the 21st century?," MERIT Working Papers 2021-012, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Teles, Vladimir Kuhl & Cardoso, Eliana A., 2010. "A brief history of Brazil's growth," Textos para discussão 241, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    16. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2010. "When, Where, and Why? Early Industrialization in the Poor Periphery 1870-1940," NBER Working Papers 16344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Edward Barbier & John Bugas, 2014. "Structural change, marginal land and economic development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-29, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:oxf:wpaper:75.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rosa Capolupo & Giuseppe Celi, 2008. "Openness And Economic Growth: A Comparative Study Of Alternative Trading Regimes," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 5-36.
    3. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2013. "Investment, trade openness and foreign direct investment: Social capability matters," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-69.
    4. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    5. Astorga, Pablo, 2007. "Real exchange rates in Latin America : what does the 20th century reveal?," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp07-03, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    6. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "Trade Barriers, Openness, and Economic Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 397-418, October.
    7. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    8. Josef Falkinger & Volker Grossmann, 2005. "Institutions and Development: The Interaction Between Trade Regime and Political System," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 231-272, September.
    9. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    10. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    11. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    12. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Niclas Berggren & Henrik Jordahl, 2005. "Does free trade really reduce growth? Further testing using the economic freedom index," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 99-114, January.
    14. COMBEY, Adama, 2016. "The Main Determinants of Private Investment in The WAEMU Zone: The Dynamic Approach," MPRA Paper 75382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2009. "Trade and Growth at Different Stages of Economic Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1211-1224.
    16. E. Tsanana & X. Chapsa & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3131-3147, July.
    17. Anupam Das & Biru Paksha Paul, 2011. "Openness and growth in emerging Asian economies: Evidence from GMM estimations of a dynamic panel," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2219-2228.
    18. Astorga, Pablo, 2012. "Mean reversion in long-horizon real exchange rates: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1529-1550.
    19. Adama Messanh COMBEY, 2016. "The Main Determinants of Private Investments in the WAEMU Zone: The Dynamic Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 731-743, December.
    20. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    21. Valpy FitzGerald, 2008. "Economic development and fluctuations in earnings inequality in the very long run: The evidence from Latin America 1900-2000," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 1028-1048.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Investment; Openness; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.