A brief history of Brazil's growth
The paper studies Brazil’s economic growth and begins with a brief overview of events that marked the country’s development from her discovery to the 19th century. It then divides the years between 1900 and 2008 into four periods. The breaks in regime occur in 1918, 1967 and 1980, according to the methodology created by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). The use of the accounting methodology serves the analysis of the behavior of productivity in the previously identified different phases of the post-World War II period. High inflation might have been a reason for the decline in productivity observed between 1980 and mid-1990s. The paper shows that terms of trade have a significant effect on economic growth and output fluctuations. Other factors (such as fiscal stimulus or easy access to foreign finance) also matter for output accelerations in the short run. From 2004 to 2008, terms of trade improvement and debt reduction brought economic progress. The emergence of a new era in this millennium will depend on wiser fiscal policies than those of the past.
|Date of creation:||04 Jan 2010|
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- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998.
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Cahiers de recherche
9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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- Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Issler, João Victor & Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2003.
"Testing production functions used in empirical growth studies,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
507, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Arvind Subramanian & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003.
"Addressing the Natural Resource Curse; An Illustration From Nigeria,"
IMF Working Papers
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 22(4), pages 570-615, August.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martín & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "Addressing the natural resource curse: An illustration from Nigeria," Economics Working Papers 685, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," NBER Working Papers 9804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leamer, Edward E. & Maul, Hugo & Rodriguez, Sergio & Schott, Peter K., 1999. "Does natural resource abundance increase Latin American income inequality?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-42, June.
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"In search of the Missing Resource Curse,"
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ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 1-57, August.
- Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008.
"The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
- Lucilene Morandi & Eustáquio J. Reis, 2004. "Estoque De Capital Fixo No Brasil, 1950-2002," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 042, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Pablo Astorga, 2009.
"A Century of Economic Growth in Latin America,"
Oxford University Economic and Social History Series
_075, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999.
"Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
- Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Eliana Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 619-646, December.
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