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A brief history of Brazil's growth

Author

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  • Teles, Vladimir Kuhl
  • Cardoso, Eliana A.

Abstract

The paper studies Brazil’s economic growth and begins with a brief overview of events that marked the country’s development from her discovery to the 19th century. It then divides the years between 1900 and 2008 into four periods. The breaks in regime occur in 1918, 1967 and 1980, according to the methodology created by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). The use of the accounting methodology serves the analysis of the behavior of productivity in the previously identified different phases of the post-World War II period. High inflation might have been a reason for the decline in productivity observed between 1980 and mid-1990s. The paper shows that terms of trade have a significant effect on economic growth and output fluctuations. Other factors (such as fiscal stimulus or easy access to foreign finance) also matter for output accelerations in the short run. From 2004 to 2008, terms of trade improvement and debt reduction brought economic progress. The emergence of a new era in this millennium will depend on wiser fiscal policies than those of the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Teles, Vladimir Kuhl & Cardoso, Eliana A., 2010. "A brief history of Brazil's growth," Textos para discussão 241, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:241
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    File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/4146/4/TD%20241%20-%20Eliana%20Cardoso%20e%20Vladimir%20Kuhl%20Teles.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
    3. Eliana Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 619-646, December.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Issler, Joao Victor & de Abreu Pessoa, Samuel, 2004. "Testing production functions used in empirical growth studies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 29-35, April.
    6. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    7. Lucilene Morandi & Eustáquio J. Reis, 2004. "Estoque De Capital Fixo No Brasil, 1950-2002," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 042, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Astorga, Pablo, 2010. "A century of economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 232-243, July.
    9. Leamer, Edward E. & Maul, Hugo & Rodriguez, Sergio & Schott, Peter K., 1999. "Does natural resource abundance increase Latin American income inequality?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-42, June.
    10. William F. Maloney & Daniel Lederman, 2008. "In search of the Missing Resource Curse," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 1-57, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Policardo & Lionello F. Punzo & Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera, 2016. "Brazil and China: Two Routes of Economic Development?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 651-669, August.
    2. repec:sbe:breart:v:35:y:2015:i:2:a:57675 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Teles, Vladimir K & de Prince Mendonça, Diogo, 2013. "Política Monetária em Tempos de Crise," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    4. Suparna Chakraborty & Keisuke Otsu, 2012. "Deconstructing Growth - A Business Cycle Accounting Approach with application to BRICs," Studies in Economics 1212, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    5. Teles, Vladimir K. & Costa Junior, Celso Jose & Rosa, Rafael Mouallem, 2015. "Investment-Specific Technological Change and the Brazilian Macroeconomy," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(2), March.

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