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Output Collapses and Productivity Destruction

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  • Daude, Christian
  • Fernández-Arias, Eduardo
  • Blyde, Juan S.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between output collapsesdefined defined as GDP falling substantially below trendand total factor productivity (TFP), using a panel of 71 developed and developing countries during the period 1960-2003 to identify episodes of output collapse and estimate counterfactual post-collapse TFP trends. Collapses are concentrated in developing countries, especially African and Latin American, and were particularly widespread in the 1980s in Latin America. Overall, output collapses are systematically associated with long-lasting declines in TFP. The paper explores the conditions under which collapses are least or most damaging, as well as the type of shocks that make collapses more likely or severe, and additionally quantifies the welfare cost associated with output collapses.

Suggested Citation

  • Daude, Christian & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Blyde, Juan S., 2011. "Output Collapses and Productivity Destruction," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1640, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:1640
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    1. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2010. "Output collapses and productivity destruction," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 359-387, June.
    2. Christian Daude & Arne Nagengast & Jose Ramon Perea, 2016. "Productive capabilities: An empirical analysis of their drivers," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 504-535, June.
    3. Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Dalibor, 2019. "Do patent rights matter? 40 years of innovation, complexity and productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 78-93.
    4. Daude, Christian, 2012. "Sovereign default risk and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 47-50.
    5. Claudio Candia & Medardo Aguirre & Natalia Correa & María J. Herrera, 2016. "La productividad total de factores en el sector manufacturero chileno," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(35), pages 229-255, July-Dece.

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    Keywords

    WP-666;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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