Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth
Acknowledging the fact that the growth experience of countries is seldom well described by the average growth rate, this paper aims at identifying countries that are similar in terms of their growth process, thus emphasizing the dynamics of growth rates. To that end, the growth experience of countries is interpreted as a Markov switching process with countries switching between four distinct growth regimes: crisis, stagnation, stable growth, and miracle growth. In the model, different growth patterns arise because countries switch between the growth regimes with different frequencies. In order to account for the distinct dynamics, the traditional Markov switching model is extended by a classification mechanism that endogenously assigns countries exhibiting similar dynamics into the same, and countries exhibiting distinct dynamics into different clusters. Three distinct growth clusters are obtained: the first cluster consists of countries that have achieved relatively fast and steady growth mainly by spending time in the stable and the miracle growth regime. Countries in the second cluster have achieved only moderate growth and often found themselves in stagnation for longer periods. The third cluster might be referred as a growth failure cluster because the countries associated with this cluster have suffered from small growth rates and frequent crises. It appears that developing countries can avoid falling into the growth failure cluster by securing a minimum amount of human capital. In contrast to that, the most distinguishing feature of the countries in the successful growth cluster is their reasonable quality of institutions.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (030) 838 2272
Fax: (030) 838 2129
Web page: http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/en/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kamel Jedidi & Harsharanjeet S. Jagpal & Wayne S. DeSarbo, 1997. "Finite-Mixture Structural Equation Models for Response-Based Segmentation and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 39-59.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000.
"International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Francisco Rodríguez & Rodrigo Wagner, 2006.
Wesleyan Economics Working Papers
2006-024, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Smith, Aaron D. & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2005.
"Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence,"
11976, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2006. "Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 553-577, October.
- Garcia, Rene, 1998.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
- René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
- Wolfgang Lutz & Anne Goujon & Samir K.C. & Warren Sanderson, 2007. "Reconstruction of population by age, sex and level of educational attainment of 120 countries for 1970-2000," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 5(1), pages 193-235.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Patrick Asea & S. Brook Blomberg, 1997.
UCLA Economics Working Papers
764, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Desdoigts, Alain, 1999. " Patterns of Economic Development and the Formation of Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 305-30, September.
- Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Political Regime Change, Economic Reform and Growth Accelerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1905, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008.
"Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2004. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Working Papers 2003-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer, 2004.
"Do Institutions Cause Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
10568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2001.
"Growth and Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results,"
OECD Development Centre Working Papers
179, OECD Publishing.
- Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2003. " Geography and Poverty Traps," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 355-78, December.
- Chris Papageorgiou, .
"Trade as a Threshold Variable for Multiple Regimes,"
Departmental Working Papers
2001-06, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
- Papageorgiou, Chris, 2002. "Trade as a threshold variable for multiple regimes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 85-91, September.
- Kim, C.-J.Chang-Jin, 2004. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 127-136, September.
- Marco Alfo & Giovanni Trovato & Robert J. Waldmann, 2008. "Testing for country heterogeneity in growth models using a finite mixture approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 487-514.
- Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
- Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
- Andros Kourtellos, 2002. "A Projection Pursuit Approach to Cross Country Growth Data," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0213, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Esmeralda A. Ramalho & Joaquim J.S. Ramalho, 2007. "Is neglected heterogeneity really an issue in nonlinear models? A simulation exercise for binary and fractional data," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2007_08, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
- Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
- Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "Does Africa grow slower than Asia, Latin America and the Middle East? Evidence from a new data-based classification method," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 553-570, August.
- Karlis, Dimitris & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2003. "Choosing initial values for the EM algorithm for finite mixtures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 577-590, January.
- Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2006. "Empirics of hills, plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 357-385, December.
- Peter Bryant, 1991. "Large-sample results for optimization-based clustering methods," Journal of Classification, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 31-44, 01.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:200911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.