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Growth Collapses


  • Ricardo Hausmann

    () (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

  • Rodrigo Wagner
  • Francisco Rodriguez


We study episodes where economic growth decelerates to negative rates. While the majority of these episodes are of short duration, a substantial fraction last for a longer period of time than can be explained as the result of business-cycle dynamics. The duration, depth and associated output loss of these episodes differs dramatically across regions. We investigate the factors associated with the entry of countries into these episodes as well as their duration. We find that while countries fall into crises for multiple reasons, including wars, export collapses, sudden stops and political transitions, most of these variables do not help predict the duration of crises episodes. In contrast, we find that a measure of the density of a country's export product space is significantly associated with lower crisis duration. We also find that unconditional and conditional hazard rates are decreasing in time, a fact that is consistent with either strong shocks to fundamentals or with models of poverty traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Hausmann & Rodrigo Wagner & Francisco Rodriguez, 2006. "Growth Collapses," CID Working Papers 136, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:136

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Francisco Rodríguez, 2008. "An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2008-005, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    3. Andros Kourtellos & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2015. "Robust Correlates of Growth Spells: Do Inequality and Redistribution Matter?," Working Paper series 15-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Brück, Tilman & Xu, Guo, 2012. "Who gives aid to whom and when? Aid accelerations, shocks and policies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 593-606.
    5. Pierre-Alexandre Balland & David Rigby & Ron Boschma, 2015. "The technological resilience of US cities," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 167-184.
    6. Jesus Felipe, 2010. "Asia and the Global Crisis: Recovery Prospects and the Future," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_619, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2014. "Soaring of the Gulf Falcons; Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions," IMF Working Papers 14/177, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2010. "Output collapses and productivity destruction," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 359-387, June.
    9. Pritchett, Lant & Sen, Kunal & Kar, Sabyasachi & Raihan, Selim, 2016. "Trillions gained and lost: Estimating the magnitude of growth episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 279-291.
    10. Jean Paul Azam & Robert Bates & Bruno Biais, 2009. "Political Predation And Economic Development," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, July.
    11. Kar, Sabyasachi & Pritchett, Lant & Raihan, Selim & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "Looking for a break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 151-166.
    12. Ricardo Hausmann & César Hidalgo, 2011. "The network structure of economic output," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 309-342, December.
    13. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darne & Jean-François Hoarau, 2012. "Convergence of real per capita GDP within COMESA countries: A panel unit root evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), pages 53-71, August.
    14. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    15. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2008. "Growth Diagnostics in Peru," Working Paper Series rwp08-62, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    16. Valerie Cerra & Ugo Panizza & Sweta C. Saxena, 2013. "International Evidence On Recovery From Recessions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 424-439, April.
    17. Marcela Meléndez Arjona & Arturo Harker Roa, 2008. "Revisiting economic growth in Colombia. A microeconomic perspective," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009137, FEDESARROLLO.
    18. Eduardo Zegarra & Javier Escobal & Ursula Aldana, 2008. "Titling, Credit Constraints and Rental Markets in Rural Peru: Exploring Channels and Conditioned Impacts," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3707, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McDermott, John, 2013. "Economic depression in the world," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 227-242.
    20. Kerekes, Monika, 2007. "Analyzing patterns of economic growth: a production frontier approach," Discussion Papers 2007/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    21. Headey, Derek D., 2013. "Developmental Drivers of Nutritional Change: A Cross-Country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 76-88.
    22. Dany Bahar & Rodrigo Wagner & Ernesto Stein & Samuel Rosenow, 2017. "The Birth and Growth of New Export Clusters: Which Mechanisms Drive Diversification?," CID Working Papers 86a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    23. Kerekes, Monika, 2009. "Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth," Discussion Papers 2009/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

    More about this item


    Stagnation; Economic Growth; Duration Analysis; Structural Transformation; Exports;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy


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