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The end of an era? The medium- and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries

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  • Berg, Andrew
  • Papageorgiou, Chris
  • Pattillo, Catherine
  • Spatafora, Nicola

Abstract

This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Berg, Andrew & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pattillo, Catherine & Spatafora, Nicola, 2011. "The end of an era? The medium- and long-term effects of the global crisis on growth in low-income countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 25, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamo11:25
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Afonso & Rui Henrique Alves, 2015. "Economic Growth Effects Of An International Crisis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(02), pages 1-16.
    2. Yasemin Bal Gündüz & Masyita Crystallin, 2018. "Do IMF programs catalyze donor assistance to low-income countries?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 359-393, September.
    3. Dabla-Norris, Era & Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2014. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-378.
    4. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    5. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    6. Mr. Martin Schindler & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Hans Weisfeld & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2011. "Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries: Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/027, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Zoran Grubisic & Perisa Ivanovic, 2012. "Influence of different monetary regimes on financial stability in see countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 91-106.
    8. Yasemin Bal Gunduz & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, 2012. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," IMF Working Papers 2012/264, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2011. "The Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU Region: The Role of Accelerations and Decelerations," IMF Working Papers 2011/174, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global financial crisis; external shocks; low-income countries; medium- and long-term growth; impulse response functions; growth spells; panel growth regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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