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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index

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  • Dabla-Norris, Era
  • Bal Gündüz, Yasemin

Abstract

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries (LICs). Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. Both the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the index are high. In particular, it explains well the growth crises observed in LICs during the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dabla-Norris, Era & Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2014. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-378.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:59:y:2014:i:c:p:360-378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.02.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Public Sector Management in Developing Countries: Is There a Link?," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 329-346, December.
    2. Angeon, Valérie & Bates, Samuel, 2015. "Reviewing Composite Vulnerability and Resilience Indexes: A Sustainable Approach and Application," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 140-162.
    3. Busby, Joshua & Smith, Todd G. & Krishnan, Nisha & Wight, Charles & Vallejo-Gutierrez, Santiago, 2018. "In harm's way: Climate security vulnerability in Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 88-118.
    4. Yasemin Bal Gündüz & Masyita Crystallin, 2018. "Do IMF programs catalyze donor assistance to low-income countries?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 359-393, September.
    5. Megersa, kelbesa & Cassimon, Danny, 2016. "Debt Sustainability and direction of trade: What does Africa’s shifting engagement with BRIC and OECD tells us?," MPRA Paper 76581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Abiad, Abdul & Bluedorn, John & Guajardo, Jaime & Topalova, Petia, 2015. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-26.
    7. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    8. Sena KIMM Gnangnon, 2020. "Export Product Diversification and Fiscal Space Volatility in Developing Countries: Exploring the Economic Growth Volatility Channel," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 1837-1854.
    9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2018. "Effect of multilateral trade liberalization on foreign direct investment outflows amid structural economic vulnerability in developing countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-29.
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade flows and Poverty Reduction in Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213807, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Calixte Ahokpossi & Claudio Battiati & Mai Farid, 2016. "A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level; Application to Low-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/163, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Samuel BATES & Valérie ANGEON, 2015. "Promoting The Sustainable Development Of Small Island Developing States: Insights From Vulnerability And Resilience Analysis," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 15-29.
    13. Jingxiao Zhang & Haiyan Xie & Klaus Schmidt & Hui Li, 2015. "A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Isha Agrawal & Rupa Duttagupta & Andrea F Presbitero, 2017. "International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 17/279, International Monetary Fund.
    15. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:17:d:61294 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nguyen, Thanh-Tung & Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Grote, Ulrike, 2020. "Multiple shocks and households' choice of coping strategies in rural Cambodia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    17. Dobronogov,Anton & Knack,Stephen & Wilson,James Michael, 2020. "Moving Up the Ladder : An Analysis of IDA Graduation Policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9208, The World Bank.
    18. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon & Harish Iyer, 2017. "Structural Economic Vulnerability, Trade Policy and FDI Inflows," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-35, February.

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